Reports Library
Thu, May 1, 2025

G–250 USD New Issue Supply with Trading Indicators for May 1, 2025.

Lloyds (LLOYDS, A3/BBB+ Sen Pref)

• Lloyds reported 1Q revenue, earnings, net interest income and credit quality that all exceeded equity analyst expectations. Trading revenue also exceeded expectations. Lloyds deposits continue to grow (up £7 bil QoQ) and similar to most European banks, LLOY LN has move its balance to the more liquid mark to market trading parts of their business. Management noted on their call that LLOYDS exposure to trade tariffs was minimal.

• Financial Position: Net debt on LLOYDS balance sheet is down to £6.4 billion as the Parent balance sheet continues to liquify and de-lever

• Model Trading Indicates: Lloyds (LLOYDS) secondary bonds continue to be an attractive long trading Indicator from our trading model. While 18 of the 23 liquid USD Lloyds bonds are considered attractive by the trading model, the LLOYDS 5.59 11/26/35 is considered the most attractive secondary bond.

CVS (CVS, Baa2/BBB+)

• Reported 1Q revenue and earnings that were well above 1Q 2024 results and exceeded analyst expectations. CVS then did what it has been doing for most of the past 2 years, they lowered forward GAAP guidance and raised "adjusted" guidance for the remainder of 2025. There are several moving pieces as one would expect with a $400 bill sales and to point to any single issue is not relevant at this point.

• Financial Position: CVS has discontinued repurchasing stock in the near term. So even though operating cashflow was lower YoY in Q1, the CVS balance sheet continues to shed net debt for a second quarter.

• Model Trading Indicates: Our credit trading model sees 12 of the 27 liquid USD CVS bonds as undervalued from a long trading perspective. The model sees the CVS 4.78 03/25/38 as the most attractive long trading Indicator in the CVS secondary bond structure.

Mondelez (Baa1/BBB)

Is in the market as expected with 3Y (+90bp), 5Y (+105) and 10Y (+120) paper. The good news is that these bonds will be the some of the higher coupons in the MDLZ credit trading curve. The bad news is our credit trading model does not see a lot of value should pricing come inside of (-20bp) to initial price talk. MDLZ is re-levering its balance sheet as of March 31, 2025.

Citigroup (C) (A3/BBB+)

Is in the market with 3nc2 fixed (+120) and FRN and 6nc5 fixed (+140) and FRN and comes after selling €4nc3 and €11nc10 9 days ago. Our trading model reflects a 97/ bottom to the attractive level to the 3nc2 fixed (and associated frn). The model sees a 113/ to the bottom of the attractive level of the 6nc5 (and associated frn).

Disclaimer - This report is not intended as, and does not constitute an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All data, levels, opinions, and representations herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The authors of this report assume no liability for losses or damages arising from the use of this information. Investors should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The information in this report is based on sources believed to be reliable, but no guarantee is made as to its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness.