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Mon, November 17, 2025

Euro Yankee Banks Earnings Digest with G-255 Credit and Equity Trade Indicators

*Issuers that updated their 3Q report in the past 5 trading days.

*** Issuers hosting a capital markets day this week.

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Key Issuer Earnings Digest Takeaways

  • All Euro Bank equities trade above our trading model long indicator levels, with the exception of UBS SW, which is just below its long indicator level.

  • Three Nordic bank equities—Nordea Bank Abp (NDA FH Equity), DNB Bank ASA (DNB NO Equity), and Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEBA SS Equity)—trade below their short trade indicator levels.

  • Deutsche Bank (DB; Baa2/BBB) and Credit Agricole (ACAFP; A3/A-) recent new supply show the most credit spread tightening potential according to our systematic trading model.

Key Sector Earnings Digest Takeaways

With bank earnings season now complete, the immediate takeaways for Euro Yankee Banks are:

  • French Banks continue to maintain higher capital levels and cash than US global banks. BNP is deploying its balance sheet to grow securities holdings. Credit Agricole has the highest credit/equity score from our trading model.

  • Nordic Banks are using capital to sustain shareholder returns at 2022–2024 levels, even as energy prices and lower interest rates on local securities materially impact earnings and cash flow. There are no true credit issues for Nordic banks—this is a cyclical downturn.

  • Spanish Bank equities have outperformed post-3Q results. All three banks (Santander SAN SM, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA BBVA SM, and CaixaBank SA CABK SM) show secular improvement in capital generation, credit metrics, and earnings growth. This should not come as a surprise, as these banks have invested heavily in technology, generating significant electronic banking revenue growth and superior cost control relative to the rest of the industry.

  • Deutsche Bank, Barclays, and US bank Capital One remain the most undervalued capital structures in the banking industry, primarily because US rating agencies continue to penalize bond and equity holders for issues all three experienced decades ago.

BPCE (FRENCH BANKS) CREDIT SYSTEMATIC TRADE INDICATORS

3Q Operating Metrics:

BPCE Group reaffirmed its strategic targets after Q3 2025, emphasizing cost discipline, capital strength, and continued growth across core businesses. Management did not revise full-year financial guidance but confirmed strong momentum heading into Q4.

CREDIT AGRICOLE (FRENCH BANKS) CREDIT AND EQUITY SYSTEMATIC TRADE INDICATORS

3Q Operating Metrics:

Crédit Agricole's Capital Markets Day is scheduled for November 17, 2025. Management will update guidance then

ABN AMRO CREDIT AND EQUITY SYSTEMATIC TRADE INDICATORS

3Q Operating Metrics

ABN AMRO's management reaffirmed full-year 2025 guidance after Q3 results, targeting at least €6.3 billion in net interest income and €5.4–€5.5 billion in total costs. They also confirmed strategic targets for 2026, including a CET1 ratio of 13.5% and ROE of 9–10%.

CAIXA BANK (SPANISH BANKS) CREDIT AND EQUITY SYSTEMATIC TRADE INDICATORS

3Q Operating Metrics:

Following its Q3 2025 results, Caixa Bank upgraded its full-year ROTE guidance to ~17%, announced a €500 million share buyback, and reaffirmed its strategic focus on cost discipline, loan growth, and capital strength.

Disclaimer - This report is not intended as, and does not constitute an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All data, levels, opinions, and representations herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The authors of this report assume no liability for losses or damages arising from the use of this information. Investors should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The information in this report is based on sources believed to be reliable, but no guarantee is made as to its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness.