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Mon, November 24, 2025

G-255 Credit Market Valuation and G-255 New Supply

G-255 Credit Market Valuation and G-255 New Supply November 24

Source: Bloomberg Capital Markets

On a Risk/Reward basis, High Yield bonds have far outperformed Investment Grade in 2025

  • UST 10-Year Rates: -21.9bp YoY and -51.5bp YTD. February 21, 2025 was the tightest spread date of 2025.

Bloomberg 10Y credit spreads are derived by taking the Moody's index yield and subtracting the UST 10Y YTM.

In November 22 G-255 issuers came to market selling 66 bonds totaling $86.6 billion of USD debt. Wednesday led by Pfizer (PFE A1/AA) printing $6 billion of new bond in 6 different offerings. 5 issuers (Novartis NOVNVX Aa3/AA-) Alphabet (GOOG Aa3/AA-), Verizon (VZ Baa1/BBB+), Amazon (AMZN A1/AA-) and Pfizer (PFE A1/AA) accounted for 31 of the bonds and $55.5 billion of the market capital. Thus far, only the majority of the Amazon bonds have reached unattractive levels post new supply while the NOVNVX 4.6 11/05/35, NOVNVX 5.2 11/05/45, NOVNVX 5.3 11/05/55 all trade outside new issue spread.

We will review the October/November new supply in the next G-255 new supply report.

Of the G-255 bonds issued through November 12, 2025 905 of 1054 (86%) reached their avoid trading levels.

Corp Bond ETF flows fell by -$589mm billion to just $218 mm in the week ending November 19, 2025

• Dedicated Investment Grade corporate bond ETFs had net outflow of -$355mm compared to -$203mm last week.

• Dedicated High Yield corporate ETFs have net outflow of $-1.411 billion compared to -$399mm last week

US mutual fund flows for the week ended Nov. 19, compared to a week earlier, according to LSEG Lipper shown below:

  • Short and intermediate investment-grade bonds: $806.9m inflow vs. $2.12b inflow

  • High-yield notes: $332.9m outflow vs. $366.5m outflow

  • Treasuries: $3.34b inflow vs. $4.22b inflow

  • US leveraged loans: $88.8m outflow vs. $387.6m inflow

  • Mortgage-related: $1.55b outflow vs. $188.6m inflow

Disclaimer - This report is not intended as, and does not constitute an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All data, levels, opinions, and representations herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The authors of this report assume no liability for losses or damages arising from the use of this information. Investors should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The information in this report is based on sources believed to be reliable, but no guarantee is made as to its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness.