G -255 Earning Summary with Trading Indicators for July 28, 2025
Model Indicator changes post 2Q results for 7 issuers Friday
G-255 Issuers reporting results Friday
Eni Spal (ENIIM Baa1/A- attractive long)
Volkswagen (VW Baa1/BBB+ attractive short)
Community Health Systems Inc (CYH B-/Caa1 avoid long)
HCA (HCA Baa3/BBB- attractive short )
Centene (CNC Ba1/BBB- avoid long)
AON GLOBAL HOLD (A- / Baa2 attractive short)
Charter Communications (CHTR Baa3/BBB- attractive long)
Earnings Summaries with Credit Trading Model Indicators
Eni Spal (ENIIM Baa1/A- attractive long) Earnings Summary:
ENI reported 2Q revenue that fell -14% YoY and operating income that fell 27% YoY.
• 2Q Hydrocarbon production fell -3% YOY
• 2Q Liquids production rose 6% YoY
• 2Q Natural gas production fell 9% YoY
• Guidance is for slightly higher operating cashflow for 2025 to €11.5 bil while capex declines slightly to €8.5 bil.
Financial Position:
• 2Q operating cashflow was €3.5 bil v. €4.6 bil in 2Q 2024.
• 2Q free cashflow was €1.27 bil v. €2.4 bil YoY.
• ENI raised both their share repurchase and dividend payout in 2Q 2025.
• Net debt fell by €281mm QoQ and €1.2 billion YoY.
Trading Model Indicator: There are 5 ENI liquid USD bonds that total $5.2 billion. Only the ENIIM 4 3/4 09/12/28 is not trading within its 52 week tight credit spread.
Equity Indicator: ENI IM equity as an attractive long trade @ at €13.50 per share.
Volkswagen (Baa1 / BBB+ attractive short to attractive long) Earnings Summary:
Volkswagen reported 2Q revenue that fell -3% YoY and operating income that fell by -21% YoY. Away from tariff impact, it was a positive quarter for VW.
• 2Q Global deliveries rose 1.3% YOY
• 2Q Electric vehicle deliveries rose 38% YoY
• 2Q North American deliveries fell -16.2% and 9% YoY
• VW Guidance for 2025 was slightly lower delivery growth and slightly lower return on sales in 2H v 1H.
Financial Position:
• 1H operating cashflow was €3.3 bil v. €4.5 bil in 1H 2024.
• 1H free cashflow was -€8.3 bil v. -€7.1 bil YoY.
• VW cut its dividend by -30% YoY in 2025.
• Total balance sheet debt fell by -€1.25 billion YoY, which is most unusual for an auto company where deliveries are rising.
Trading Model Indicator: There are 31 liquid VW secondary USD bonds that total $21.5 billion in circulation. 11 of the fixed rate notes have market capital of $750mm or more. None of the VW secondary bonds are considered undervalued by the systematic trading model. The model sees new VW supply attractive +7.5% in credit spread terms to existing bonds.
Equity Indicator: VW GR equity is an attractive short trade @ at €109.50 per share.
Community Health Systems (CYH B-/Caa1 avoid long) Earnings Summary:
Community Health reported 2Q revenue that fell -1% YoY and operating income that more than doubled YoY.
• During the first half of 2025 CHY went through several equity interest and asset sales which impacted operating metrics.
• 2Q hospitals operated fell by 8 to 70 YoY.
• 2Q Operating margin rose to 16.3% from 7.6% in 2Q 2024.
• 2Q Admissions fell by -4.2% YoY
• 2Q "Same Store Admissions" rose by 2.3%
• Guidance for 2025 was unchanged as the company is now changing CEOs.
Financial Position:
• 2Q operating cashflow was $87mm v. $101mm 2Q 2024.
• 1H cash flow was $208mm vs $197mm.
• CYH net debt has declined in each of the past 5 quarter and is down -$1.1 billion YoY to $10.86 billion.
Trading Model Indicator: There are 9 liquid CYH secondary USD bonds that total $13.3 billion. With CYH equity down 18.29% over the past 30 days, the systematic trading model creates an avoid long indicator which will not turn positive until and issuer equity price decline is less than (-10%) in the prior 30 day period.
Equity Indicator: CHY equity is an attractive long @ at $2.80 per share.
HCA (HCA Baa3/BBB- attractive) Earnings Summary:
HCA (HCA) reported 2Q revenue that fell -1% YoY and operating income that more than doubled YoY.
• 2Q Same facility admissions rose 1.8% percent
• 2Q Same facility emergency room visits increased 1.3 % YoY
• 2Q Admissions fell by -4.2% YoY
• 2Q Same facility inpatient surgeries declined 0.3%
• HCA (HCA) raised 2025 cashflow guidance to $12+ billion .
Financial Position:
• 1H Operating cashflow was $5.9 bil v. $4.44 bil in 1H 2024.
• 1H free cash flow was $3.6 bil v. $1 bil.
• After capex, share repurchase and dividend payments net debt fell by -$93mm QoQ and rose by $3.6 bil YoY to $44.5 billion.
Trading Model Indicator: There are 29 liquid HCA secondary USD bonds that total $33 billion. All but 2 of the fixed rate bonds have market capital of $750mm or more. The Systematic trading modes indicators show 22 of the HCA bonds are overvalued and 20 short trading indicators. The bond with most spread widening potential is the HCA 3 1/2 07/15/51.
Equity Indicator: HCA equity is an attractive long @ its Friday closing price of $334.30 per share.
Centene (CNC Ba1/BBB- attractive long) Earnings Summary:
reported 2Q revenue that rose 21% YoY and a small operating loss.
• 2Q Medicaid revenue rose 7% v. 2Q 2024.
• 2Q Commercial revenue rose 18% YoY.
• 2Q Medicare revenue rose 585 YoY.
• 2Q Health Benefits ratio dropped to 93% v. 87.6% YoY.
• 2Q Centene cut EPS by 80% to $1.75 per share.
Financial Position:
• 1H Operating cashflow was $3.2 bil v. $1.7 bil in 1H 2024.
• 1H free cash flow was $2.85 bil v. $1.35 bil.
• After capex, share repurchase and dividend payments net debt fell by -$737mm QoQ and rose by $2 bil YoY to $296mm. Total balance sheet debt fell by -$743mm QoQ and -$423mm YoY to $17.5 bil.
Trading Model Indicator: There are 7 liquid CNC secondary USD bonds that total $16 billion. All have market capital of $1 bil or greater. CNC equity is down 47.4% over the past 30 days, the systematic trading model creates an avoid long indicator which will not turn positive until and issuer equity price decline is less than (-10%) in the prior 30 day period.
Equity Indicator: CNC equity is an attractive long @ its Friday closing price of $28.39 per share.
AON GLOBAL HOLD (A- / Baa2 attractive short) Earnings Summary:
AON reported 2Q revenue that rose 10.5% and earnings that rose 8% YoY.
• 2Q Risk Capital Solutions revenue rose 8% YoY.
• 2Q Health Insurance revenue rose +17% YoY
• 2Q Wealth Management revenue rose 12% YoY.
• Management guided to an acceleration of 2H results that should lead to double digit revenue growth.
Financial Position:
• 1H operating cashflow grew 14% to $936mm.
• 1H free cash cash flow rose 13% to $816mm.
• Dividends and share repurchase rose 6.5% to $794mm in 1H 2025.
• Net debt rose by $400mm QoQ and $500mm YoY $14.5 billion.
Trading Model Indicator: There are 23 liquid USD Aon bonds totaling $17 billion in market capital. 6 of the 7 Aon bonds that have $750mm or more of market cap carry an attractive short trading indicator from out credit trading model. The bond with the greatest spread widening potential is the attractive short according to the trading model is the AON 5.45 03/01/34.
Equity Indicator: AON equity is an attractive long trade at $370 per share.
Charter Communications (CHTR, Baa3/BBB-, Attractive long) Earnings Summary:
Charter reported 2Q revenue growth of 1% and flat earnings growth YoY. Subscriber metrics were disappointing to the equity markets as CHTR equity dropped -23% post reporting earnings on Friday.
• 2Q Internet subscribers fell – 117k vs. -149k in 2Q 2024.
• 2Q Video customers dropped by 80k vs. -408k in 2Q 2024.
• 2Q mobil lines rose by 500k vs. 557k additions in 2Q 2024.
• Charter did not raise revenue guidance but did cut capex guidance by $500mm to $11.5 billion.
Financial Position:
• 2Q Operating cashflow fell -6.6% YoY to $3.6 bil.
• 2Q free cash flow fell – 19.3% to $1.046 billion.
• Charter spent $1.45 billion on share repurchases in 2Q 2025 v. $361mm in 2Q 2024.
• While QoQ net debt rose by $883mm, YoY net debt is -$2.2 bil lower and total CHTR balance sheet debt is -$2.3 bil lower YoY.
Trading Model Indicator: There are 60 liquid secondary USD CHTR and Cox Communication bonds in circulation totaling $84 billion in market capitalization. Charter equity is down -23% over the past 30 days, the systematic trading model creates an avoid long indicator which will not turn positive until and issuer equity price decline is less than (-10%) in the prior 30 day period.
Equity Indicator: Charter (CHTR) equity is an attractive long trade at its current price of $309.70 per share.
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