Reports Library
Thu, July 17, 2025

G -255 Earning Summary with Trade Indicators for July 17, 2025

One Model Indicator change post 2Q results for 2 issuers Wednesday 2 issuers Thursday

G-255 Issuers reporting results Wednesday

United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL Ba1/BBB- attractive long) Reported

Alcoa Corp (AA not a G-255 issuer) Reported

Kinder Morgan (KMI Baa2/BBB attractive short) Reported

G-255 Issuers reporting results Thursday

Nordea Bank (NDAFH, A3/A attractive short) Reported

Swedbank (SWEDA, A3/A- attractive short change from 1Q) Reported

Nordea Bank NDAFH

Nordea Bank (NDAFH, A3/A attractive short) reported Q2 2025 earnings down 5% year-over-year (YoY) on revenue that declined 4.1% YoY. Net interest income fell 6% YoY and 2% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) due to lower interest rates but exceeded expectations. The company reiterated its outlook for a return on equity above 15% and a buffer of 150 basis points above the regulatory CET1 requirement. Nordea's dividend policy targets a 60–70% payout ratio for annual profits, with ongoing assessments for share buybacks to distribute excess capital.

Financial Position Nordea has increased its dividend by 13% over the past three years. Deposits grew by €14 billion QoQ and €26 billion YoY. Net debt rose by €7 billion QoQ and €17 billion YoY. As of June 30, 2025, Tier 1 capital was 17.5%, compared to 17.6% at Q1 2025 and 19.8% a year ago. Loans increased by 3.5% QoQ, with improved credit quality both QoQ and YoY. Nordea launched a €250 million share buyback program on June 16, 2025, expected to conclude by September 30, 2025.

Trading Model Indicators Nordea has 12 liquid USD bonds in circulation, including Senior Preferred, Senior Non-Preferred, and AT1 bonds. The trading model identifies the NDAFH 3.75% Perpetual bond as an attractive short, with two other bonds deemed overvalued.

  • Equity: The model views NDAFH SS equity as an attractive long trade at €138 per share.

Swedbank (Sweda)

Swedbank (SWEDA, A3/A-, Attractive Short) Swedbank reported Q2 2025 earnings down 8% YoY on revenue that fell 6% YoY. Net interest income declined 10% YoY and 5% QoQ due to lower interest rates but beat expectations due to reduced operating costs. Swedbank signed an agreement to acquire all shares in Stabelo Group AB, a digital lending platform, with ownership transfer expected in autumn 2025, pending regulatory approval.

Financial Position As of June 30, 2025, Swedbank's Tier 1 capital was 19.7%, unchanged from Q1 2025 but down from 20.1% a year ago. Loans grew by less than 1% QoQ, with improved credit quality. The bank has increased its dividend by 24% over the past three years. Deposits rose by SEK 36 billion both QoQ and YoY. Net debt on the balance sheet showed slight YoY growth.

Trading Model Indicators Swedbank has 11 liquid USD bonds in circulation, including Senior Preferred, Senior Non-Preferred, and AT1 bonds. The trading model identifies four bonds as overvalued, with only one having a maturity longer than five years.

  • Equity: The model views SWEDA SS equity as an attractive long trade at SEK 345.50 per share.

Kinder Morgan (KMI)

Kinder Morgan (KMI, Baa2/BBB, Attractive Short) Kinder Morgan reported 23% YoY earnings growth and 6% YoY EBITDA growth. The company raised its 2025 guidance, projecting 10% earnings growth, 4% EBITDA growth, and 2% dividend growth.

Financial Position

Kinder Morgan continues to invest heavily in natural gas pipeline projects, with its operating asset base growing approximately 9% annually. As of June 30, 2025, the company has a project backlog of nearly $8 billion. Management targets a Debt/EBITDA ratio of 3.5x, with balance sheet debt stable at approximately $32 billion, unchanged both QoQ and YoY.

Trading Model Indicators

The credit trading model evaluates KMI's USD secondary trading curve, comprising 22 liquid bonds with a total market capitalization of $20.4 billion, as an attractive short opportunity. Ten bonds are deemed overvalued, with eight flagged as attractive short indicators. The KMI 3.6% 02/15/51 bond is the most attractive short.

  • Equity: The model views KMI equity as an attractive long trade at $27.41 per share.

United Airlines (UAL, Ba1/BBB-, Attractive Long)

United Airlines (UAL, Ba1/BBB-, Attractive Long) United Airlines reported Q2 2025 revenue of $15.2 billion, up 1.7% YoY, while earnings declined 29% YoY. Total Revenue per Available Seat Mile (TRASM) decreased 4.0% compared to Q2 2024. From early July 2025, United observed a 6-point sequential demand acceleration and double-digit business demand growth compared to Q2 2025, attributed to reduced geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. Consequently, United raised its 2025 earnings guidance, reflecting improved business performance and charges related to its Newark airport occupancy.

Financial Position

United Airlines allocates all free cash flow to debt reduction. As of June 30, 2025, net debt decreased by $870 million QoQ and $1.3 billion YoY, reaching $11.46 billion.

Trading Model Indicators

The credit trading model assesses UAL's USD secondary trading curve, consisting of 13 liquid secured and unsecured bonds with a total market capitalization of $12 billion, as an attractive long opportunity. The first lien UAL 5.8% 01/15/36 bond is identified as undervalued.

  • Equity: The model views UAL equity as an attractive long trade at $79.50 per share.

Disclaimer - This report is not intended as, and does not constitute an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All data, levels, opinions, and representations herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The authors of this report assume no liability for losses or damages arising from the use of this information. Investors should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The information in this report is based on sources believed to be reliable, but no guarantee is made as to its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness.