G-255 Earning Summary with Trade Indicators for July 23 2025
G – 255 Issuers reporting results Wednesday 23 July 2025
Equinor (EQNR, Aa3/AA- attractive long to attractive short)
UniCredit (UCGIM Baa1/BBB+ attractive long)
ATT (T Baa2/BBB attractive long)
Fiserv Inc (FI, Baa2/BBB attractive short)
Next Era Energy (NEE Baa1/BBB+ attractive short)
Thermo Fisher (TMO),A3/A- attractive long to attractive short)
Rogers Com (RCICN, Baa3/BBB- attractive short to attractive long )
Crown Castle (CCI, A2/A- attractive short)
Alphabet (GOOGL Aa2/AA+ attractive long)
IBM (IBM Baa1/BBB attractive short)
T - Mobil (TMUS, Baa2/BBB attractive short to attractive long)
CSX (CSX A3/BBB+ attractive short ) Pg. 6
Earnings Summaries with Credit Trading Model Indicators
Equinor (EQNR, Aa2/AA- attractive long) Earnings Summary:
Equinor reported 2Q revenue that rose 1% and earnings that fell 50% YoY.
• Oil and Gas Production rose by 2% YoY
• Renewable Energy production rose 26% YoY
• Overall pricing was approx. -14% YoY
Company guidance:
-$13 billion of Capex
-4% oil and gas production growth
-$9 billion of capital distribution.
Financial Position:
• Net cashflow after capex, share repurchase and dividends was -$6 billion in the quarter. to date are -$493
• EQNR net rose by $10 billion YoY to $7.2 billion.
Trading Model Indicator: There are 19 liquid Equinor USD secondary bonds in circulation but only 4 with market capitalization greater than $900mm. 3 of bonds have short trade indicators. The most attractive short trade is the EQNR 3 1/4 11/18/49.
Equity Indicator: The model views EQNR NO equity as an attractive short trade at NOK 263 per share.
UniCredit (UCGIM Baa1/BBB+ attractive long) Earnings Summary:
UCG IM reported 2Q earnings that rose 25% YoY on -3% revenue declines owing to lower charge-offs and higher investment income.
• 2Q Net Interest Income fell -2.9% YoY to €6.9 bil
• 2Q Dividend income rose 95% to €446mm
• 2Q Trading income fell -15.8% YoY to €883mm
• 2Q Overall Provisions and charges fell -24% YoY to €442mm
Financial Position:
• Tier 1 capital at 16.0%, slightly down from 16.1% at March 31, 2025, and 16.3% in 2Q 2024.
• Company did not use balance sheet to repurchase equity and pay dividends in 2Q 2025.
• Deposits increased by €9.5 billion QoQ, but are still -€2.2 billion lower YoY
• Loans grew by 3% QoQ.
• UniCredit balance sheet maintains more cash than debt.
Trading Model Indicator: There are 7 UCGIM liquid USD bonds (fixed and floating – fin co notes, opco) totaling $7.5 billion. None have undervalued trading indicators from our credit trading model.
Equity indicator: UCG IM is an attractive long @ €54 per share.
Thermo Fisher (TMO),A3/A- attractive long) Earnings Summary:
TMO reported 2Q revenue that fell rose 2.6 YoY and operating earnings that rose 6% YoY as results were depressed by the Analytical Instruments division.
•Organic revenue grew 2% YoY site rental revenue fell (-5%) YoY
•Analytical Instruments (20% of total revenues) saw a 26% decline in YoY revenue.
•Free cashflow fell 44% in the quarter to $1.5 billion.
Company guidance:
•Company raised "adjusted guidance" but the bottom line numbers are not great..
Financial Position:
• After capex, share repurchase and dividends TMO net debt rose by $600mm QoQ and $2.3 billion YOY to $28.8 billion.
Trading Model Indicator: There are currently 14 liquid USD TMO bonds totaling $12 billion. 10 of those bonds have a market capitalization over $750mm and 6 have an overvalued trading model indicator. 3 bonds have attractive short trading indicator with the TMO 2.8 10/15/41 having the most potential credit spread widening.
Equity Indicator: The trading indicator sees Thermo Fisher (TMO) equity attractive short trade at $525 per share or higher.
Alphabet (Google, Aa2/AA+, attractive long) Earnings Summary:
Alphabet reported 2Q revenue growth of 13% and operating income growth of 14% YoY.
• Google Services revenues increased 12% to $82.5 billion.
• Google Cloud revenues increased 32% to $13.6 billion.
• Operating margin was 32.4%.
Financial Position:
• The GOOGL balance sheet is stronger than that of the US Government with $123 billion more cash + LT investments more than overall debt outstanding..
• While the company continues to spend more on share repurchase and dividends than the cash it generates. GOOGL would not see a material decline in cash and investment balances unless the company spent $20 billion more than free cash flow for 2 successive years.
Trading Model Indicator: There are 11 liquid Alphabet secondary bonds totaling $17 billion in market cap. The trading model indicators show 4 bonds – all with less than 3% GOOGL bonds as undervalued. sees AXP secondary bonds as overvalued, but not yet an attractive short. The model would participate in American Express new supply.
Equity Indicator: The model views GOOGL equity as an attractive long trade at $173 per share.
IBM (IBM, A2/A-, attractive short) Earnings Summary:
IBM reported 2Q revenue growth of 8% and earnings growth of 20% YoY.
• 2Q Revenue –Software revenue up 10 percent, up 8 percent at constant currency
• 2Q Consulting revenue rose 3%
• 2Q Infrastructure revenue rose 14%
• Company guidance was for roughly 6% overall and 8% free cash flow growth YoY.
Financial Position:
• 2Q operating cashflow was $1.7 billion, down $0.4 billion year to year. Free cash flow was $2.8 billion, up $200mm YoY
• IBM paid $1.6 billion in dividends in 2Q.
• Operating cashflow over the first six months of the year of $6.1 billion, was down $0.2 billion YOY.
• After Capex, share repurchase and dividends, IBM net debt rose $2.4 billion QoQ and $5.9 bill YoY.
Trading Model Indicator: IBM has 36 secondary USD bonds with market cap of $38 billion. 15 of those bonds have systematic trading model indicators of overvalued. 12 bonds have attractive short trading indicators. The IBM 4 06/20/42 has the most potential spread widening according to our trading model.
Equity Indicator: The trading model views IBM (IBM) equity as an attractive short trade at its current price of $282.25 per share.
Rogers Communications (RCICN, Baa3/BBB- attractive long) Earnings Summary:
RCI reported 2Q revenue that rose 2.4% and operating income that fell -62% YoY owing to weak wireless results and one time charges.
•2Q wireless service revenue grew 1% YoY
•2Q wireless equipment revenue grew 13% YoY
•2Q cable revenue rose 1% YoY
•2Q entertainment revenue rose 10% YoY.
•2Q total wireless subscribers fell by 101k YoY.
Company guidance:
• Effective July 1, 2025, after receiving all required regulatory and league approvals, we acquired Bell's 37.5% ownership stake in MLSE for a purchase price of $4.7 billion in cash (MLSE Transaction).
• MLSE owns the Toronto Maple Leafs (NHL), Toronto Raptors (NBA), Toronto FC (MLS), the Toronto Argonauts (CFL), various minor league teams, and associated real estate holdings, including Scotiabank Arena.
Financial Position:
• 2Q Operating cash flow rose to $1,6 bil from $1,47 bil YoY
• Company closed the sale of a minority interest in BNSI wireless to several investors for C$ 6.7 billion,
• Afte capex and dividends RCI net debt fell by -$9.3 billion QoQ and -$6 billion YOY to C$34,5 billion.
Trading Model Indicator: There are currently 21 liquid USD RCI bonds (senior and sub) totaling $23.4 billion. While 9 of these bonds have market capital of $750mm or more, none have a undervalued or attractive long model trading indicator at current levels.
Equity Indicator: The trading model sees RCI equity as attractive below $30 per share.
ATT (T Baa2/BBB attractive long) Earnings summary:
ATT reported 2Q revenue that rose 2.7% and operating income that rose 12.9% YoY. Subscriber metrics were less spectacular than report earnings growth.
• 2Q Mobility service revenues rose 3.5% YoY
•243,000 AT&T Fiber net adds and 203,000 AT&T Internet Air net adds
•Consumer fiber broadband revenues rose 18.9% YoY
•Total Wireless adds were 289k in 2Q 2025 v. 997k in 2Q 2024.
•Both prepaid and postpaid churn rates rose YoY.
•ATT Repurchased approximately $1.0 billion in common shares in the first half of 2025
•Consolidated service revenue growth in the low-single-digit range.
Company guidance:
•Mobility service revenue growth of 3% or better.
•Consumer fiber broadband revenue growth in the mid-to-high teens.
•Capital investment* in the $22 to $22.5 billion range.
•Free cash flow* in the low-to-mid $16 billion range.
•Share repurchases of $4 billion for 2025, including approximately $1.3 billion completed year to date.
Financial Position:
• Afte capex, share repurchase and dividends ATT net debt rose by $2.5 billion QoQ but fell by $5.1 billion YOY to $121.8 billion.
Trading Model Indicator: There are currently 35 liquid USD ATT bonds totaling $84 billion. Just 1 bond, the T 5 3/8 08/15/35 is considered an attractive long trading indicator by our credit trading model as the 35 bonds trade on average within 8.95% of their 52 week tight credit spread.
Equity Indicator: The trading model sees ATT (T) equity as attractive below $27 per share.
T - Mobil (TMUS, Baa2/BBB attractive short) Earnings Summary:
TMUS reported 2Q revenue that rose 6.86% and operating income that rose 10.15% YoY. Subscriber metrics were more impressive than financial performance.
•Q2 Postpaid net customer adds of 1.7 million
•Q2 broadband net customer adds +12% to 454k
•Q2 Service revenue growth 6% YoY
•Postpaid service revenues of up 9% YoY
•Net income of $3.2 billion, highest-ever, grew 10% year-over-year
•Operating cash flow grew 27% to $7.0 billion
Company guidance:
•Postpaid net adds between 6.1 million and 6.4 million v 5.5 million to 6.0 million prior.
•Operating Cash Flow same as prior $27.1 billion and $27.5 billion.
Financial Position:
• After share repurchase capex and dividends TMUS net debt fell by -$1.1 billion QoQ and rose just $1.5 billion YOY to $71.2 billion.
Trading Model Indicator: There are currently 38 liquid USD TMUS bonds totaling $63.8 billion. Just 4 bonds, have undervalued indicators from our credit trading model. Only the TMUS 4 3/8 04/15/40 has a maturity outside of April 15 2026 and has an undervalued trading indicator.
Equity Indicator: The trading model sees T - Mobil (TMUS) equity as attractive at its current $234 share price.
Crown Castle (CCI, Baa3/BBB-, attractive short) Earnings Summary:
Crown Castle reported 2Q revenue that fell 35% YoY and operating earnings that rose 16% YoY as asset sales and re-configuration of the business are beginning to take effect.
•Q2 site rental revenue fell (-5%) YoY
•Q2 EBITDA fell -3% YoY
•Operating cash flow grew 6% to $1.43 for the 6 months ended June 30
Company guidance:
•Slight increases in both site rentals and EBITDA for the remainder of 2025.
Financial Position:
• After capex, share repurchase and dividends CCI net debt fell by -$100mm QoQ and rose just $600mm YOY to $24.2 billion.
Trading Model Indicator: There are currently 15 liquid USD CCI bonds totaling $12.45 billion. 6 of those bonds have a market capitalization over $750mm and all have an overvalued trading model indicator. 2 bonds have attractive short trading indicator with the CCI 2.9 04/01/41 having the most potential credit spread widening.
Equity Indicator: The trading model avoids Crown Castle (CCI) equity owing to the YoY revenue decline.
Fiserv (FI, Baa3/BBB-, attractive short) Earnings Summary:
Fiserv reported 2Q revenue that rose 8% YoY and operating earnings that rose 19% YoY as the core business continues to grow 8 – 10%.
•Q2 Merchant Solution revenue grew 10% YoY
•Q2 Financial Solution revenue grew 7% YoY
•Operating cash flow grew 6% to $1.43 for the 6 months ended June 30
Company guidance:
•Fiserv's guidance on revenue and earnings was unchanged.
Financial Position:
• After capex, share repurchase and dividends FI net debt rose by $1.5 bil QoQ and $4 billion YOY to $28.6 billion.
Trading Model Indicator: 13 of the 15 liquid USD have a market capitalization pf $750mm and all 13 have overvalued trading indicators. 2 of the Fiserv bonds have attractive short trading indicators with the FI 5 5/8 08/21/33 having the greatest spread widening potential.
Equity Indicator: The trading model Crown Castle (CCI) equity owing to the YoY revenue decline.
Next Era Energy (NEE Baa1/BBB+ attractive short):
Next Era reported 2Q revenue that rose 104% YoY and operating earnings that rose 26% YoY, NEE operates 2 businesses:
• Florida Power & Light grew its regulatory capital employed by nearly 8% year-over-year and continues to keep customer pricing in the mid – single digits.
• NextEra Energy Resources renewables and storage origination, added 3.2 gigawatts to its backlog,
• Company continues to guide towards 8 – 10% operating earnings growth.
Financial Position:
• Like all other healthy electric utility companies, NEE balance sheet is expanding rapidly. Net Debt has grown 13% at NEE YoY to $92 billion
Trading Model Indicator: There are 45 liquid USD FPL and NEE holdco bonds in circulation. 22 of those bonds currently carry a systematic credit trading model indicator of attractive short. The NEE 2 1/4 06/01/30 bond has the best risk / reward of all 22 bonds at present according to our trading model.
Equity Indicator: The model views NEE equity (with 10% annual dividend growth) as attractive at its current price of $72.82 per share.
CSX (CSX, A3/BBB+, attractive short) Earnings summary:
CSX reported 2Q revenue that fell -3.4% and operating earnings that fell 14% YoY. This is the second direct result we have witnessed impacted by "Trump tariffs."
• 1H Operating Cash Flow fell -13% YoY to $1.89 billion.
• Intermodal volumes rose 2% in the quarter but revenue per unit fell 5% YOY
• Merchandise units fell -2% in the quarter and pricing was flat YoY.
Financial Position:
• After capex and dividends GM net debt rose by $800mm QoQ and $1.5 billion YOY to $18.8 billion.
• CSX slowed returns to shareholders in 2Q 2025 as cashflow declined, but still used balance sheet to pay dividends and repurchase shares.
Trading Model Indicator: There are currently 23 liquid USD CSX bonds totaling $15.5 billion. All of the 8 CSX bonds with more than $750mm of market capitalization have generated an attractive short trading indicator. The CSX 4 1/4 03/15/29 has the greatest widening margin of the 8 bonds.
Equity Indicator: The model avoids CSX equity owing to declining cash flow YoY.
Disclaimer - This report is not intended as, and does not constitute an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All data, levels, opinions, and representations herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The authors of this report assume no liability for losses or damages arising from the use of this information. Investors should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The information in this report is based on sources believed to be reliable, but no guarantee is made as to its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness.