Ford Reported Q3 Results and BBB Auto Rating with G-255 Trading Indicators for December 16, 2025
Key Takeaway -BBB Autos. Ford's new guidance is about cutting losses on pure EVs and repositioning around hybrids and extended-range electrics, with a painful financial hit now but hopes of steadier demand in the next few years.
As we see it, the issue for Ford is can they keep their Moody's investment grade credit rating. One would think in the very short run, Ford would need to cut their dividend to do so. Ford equity is a short trade indicator from the systematic trading model.
Is Ford (F) Still the top ranked G-255 equity short? A: Yes
We write often about unit volume growth, pricing, and cash flow, and how the systematic trading model incorporates those metrics into its equity trading indicators. Ford has the most downside of any G-255 equity.
After reporting Q3 2025 results, Ford management lowered its full-year operating earnings guidance to adjusted EBIT of $6.0–$6.5 billion, down from prior expectations. They also guided adjusted free cash flow to $2.0–$3.0 billion, while keeping capital expenditures around $9 billion.
Ford (F Ba1/BBB- short credit/equity) Motor Co. is discontinuing production of the F-150 Lightning EV pickup truck, marking a shift away from pure electric mobility. The company will pivot to hybrids globally but will focus more on low-cost EVs for the U.S. via its Universal EV Platform. Ford will take $19.5 billion in charges related to its EV business, which is proactive and reflects the "new reality" of weak demand and heavily reduced compliance requirements, according to Bloomberg.
Ford's new guidance following today's announcement is a major strategic pivot: the company is retreating from fully electric vehicles, taking a $19.5 billion charge, and shifting focus toward hybrids and extended-range EVs.
Points from Ford's Updated Guidance
• $19.5 billion write-down: Ford will record this charge in Q4 2025, tied to restructuring and canceled EV programs.
• EV pullback: The company is scrapping several fully electric models, including:
• The next-generation electric truck (T3).
• Planned electric commercial vans.
• The fully electric F-150 Lightning, which will be replaced by a new extended-range EV that uses a gas engine to recharge the battery.
Hybrid pivot: Ford is signaling a stronger emphasis on hybrids and extended-range EVs rather than pure battery EVs.
• Market context: U.S. EV sales fell ~40% in November, reflecting weakening demand and policy changes under the Trump administration.
• Forward outlook: Management is guiding investors to expect lower near-term profits due to the write down, but a more balanced product mix with hybrids and energy-storage initiatives in 2026 and beyond.
• Short-term hit: The $19.5B charge will weigh heavily on Q4 earnings.
• Strategic reset: Ford is effectively acknowledging that its earlier EV bets overshot market demand.
• Long-term positioning: By pivoting to hybrids and extended-range EVs, Ford is betting on consumer preference for flexibility and reduced charging anxiety
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