G-255 Issuers Reported 3Q Results 10/30/2025 with Trade Indicators
*Write - ups will be provided in this afternoon's earnings digest.
We are trying to keep the write ups as brief as possible as well as keep each report to around 10 issuers each. We are a bit behind and will publish a second earnings digest this evening.
The sector with the most issuers now adding debt is BBB Auto followed by BBB Healthcare. Sector where issuers are reducing debt is UK banks and Single A rated Autos. Thursday's $30 billion new Meta deal moved TMT supply in both the BBB and Single sectors wider, but TMT spreads also widened on poor results from Charter Communications and Comcast.
Returns to shareholders will set records this year with over $ 1 trillion of those returns funded from corporate balance sheet borrowings.
Standard Chartered (STANLN A3/BBB+ attractive long credit/equity) reported 3Q earnings.
Revenue rose 3% YoY while operating earnings rose 10% YoY.
Standard Chartered is retaining capital and
3Q Deposits rose 1% QoQ and rose 4% YoY.
3Q Asset quality is improving QoQ and YoY.
3Q Client assets rose +8% in the quarter and 21% YoY.
3Q Loan growth was -1% QoQ and 4% YoY.
3Q Net interest income fell -4% QoQ and -4% YoY.
3Q Transaction services income fell rose +1% QoQ and fell -5% YoY.
3Q Global Banking income rose +7% QoQ and rose +25% YoY.
3Q Global Markets income fell -25% QoQ and rose +1% YoY.
3Q Wealth Solutions income rose +20% QoQ and rose +27% YoY.
3Q Mortgage Markets income rose +4% QoQ and fell -1% YoY.
Management upgraded its 2025 income growth guidance to the upper end of the 5% to 7% range and underlying ROTE of around 13% in 2025.
Financial Position: CET 1 capital is 14.2 % vs 14.3 % at June 30 and 14.2% @ September 30, 2024. STANLN grew its position and trading book by 14% YoY. Company returned $2.788 billion to STANL LN shareholders in the first 9 months of 2025 and that is a 79% increase YoY management has pledged $8 billion of share buyback and dividend through 2026. STANLN has net cash on its balance sheet.
Credit Trading Indicator: The Standard Chartered secondary USD trading curve has 31 liquid bonds (floating and fixed rate bank notes and Senior Holdco and Subordinated bonds and Perp) totaling $35.3 billion with 5 undervalued and no long trade indicators.
Recent new USD supply: 8/5/25 STANLN 5.4 08/12/36 +120/10Y trades -15bp to NIP
Equity Trading Indicator: Standard Chartered (STAN LN) equity is a trading indicator below GBp 1360/shr.
ING (INTNED, Baa1/A- attractive short credit/long equity) reported 3Q quarter earnings
Operating Revenue + 5.6% YoY while operating income fell -5% YoY.
ING is returning net capital YoY.
3Q Deposits rose by 1.2% QoQ and +7% YoY.
3Q Asset quality is flat QoQ improving YoY.
3Q Client assets rose 2% QoQ and 10%YoY.
3Q Loans rose by +3% QoQ and +2% YoY.
3Q Net interest income rose 4.8% QoQ and +0.4% YoY.
3Q Fee Income rose +3.8% QoQ and +15% YoY.
Management raised net income guidance by +3% for 2025 as well as CET 1 capital guidance to above 13.5%.
Financial Position: Tier 1 capital is 13.5% vs 13.2% at June 30 and 14.3% on September 30, 2024
Company has returned: €6.5 billion, to shareholders a -4% decrease over the first 9 mos. of 202 2024. ING continues to add net debt by +€2 to +€3 billion per quarter.
Credit Trading Indicator: The INTNED secondary USD trading curve has 25 liquid bonds (fixed and floating rate bank notes, Sr. Holdco and subordinated bonds and Perp) totaling $27.6 billion with 9 overvalued trade indicators and 9 short trade indicators.
Recent new USD supply: March 18, 2025, INTNED 5.066 03/25/31 +100/5Y currently trading -27bp to NIP.
Equity Trading Indicator: INGA is a long trade indicator below €20.43.
Apple (AAPL, Aaa/AAA attractive long credit/equity) Q4 ended September 30
Apple reported Q4 operating revenue of $102.5 billion, up 8% YoY, setting a September quarter record.
3Q Operating Metrics:
iPhone Revenue: $49.0 billion (+6% YoY)
Services Revenue: $28.8 billion (+15% YoY)
Mac Revenue: $8.7 billion (+13% YoY)
Wearables, Home, Accessories: $9.0 billion (â0.3% YoY)
Operating Cash Flow: $27.9 billion
Free Cash Flow: $24.6 billion (â9.2% YoY)
Apple's guidance for the upcoming December quarter anticipates a record-breaking period with 10–12% year-over-year revenue growth.
Financial Position: Apple's net debt was $44 billion in Q4 2025, compared to $46.3 billion in June 2025 company has $77 billion in marketable securities. Full-year operating cash flow was $118.25 billion, down 3.96% year-over-year, and free cash flow was $108.81 billion, down 7.82% year-over-year. Over the last 12 months, Apple returned a total of $115.7 billion to shareholders, consisting of $16.4 billion in dividends and $99.3 billion in share repurchases.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are 40 secondary USD AAPL bonds totaling $67.75 billion. 8 have undervalued and 1 has a long trade indicator.
Recent USD Supply: May 5 AAPL 4 ¾ 05/12/35 issued +50/10Y trades -15bp to NIP.
Equity Trading Model Indicator: AAPL equity is a long trade indicator below $229.27/shr.
Comcast (CMCSA, A3/Aâ attractive long credit/equity) Q3 ended September 30
Comcast reported Q3 operating revenue that declined 2.7% YoY, Operating earnings fell – 6%.
3Q Operating Metrics:
Connectivity Revenue: $11.5 billion (+4.2% YoY)
Wireless Line Additions: 414,000 (record high)
Theme Parks Revenue: +19% YoY (Epic Universe launch)
3Q Operating Cash Flow: $8.7 billion (+23.8% YoY)
3Q Free Cash Flow: $4.9 billion (+45.2% YoY)
Comcast issued a cautious near-term outlook for its broadband business, including expectations for no growth in broadband average revenue per user (ARPU) in early 2026.
Financial Position: Comcast's net debt was $89.84 billion in Q3 2025, -$2.1 billion from June 2025 and down from $92.5 billion in September 2024. Year-to-date through Q3 2025, Comcast returned a total of $8.8 billion to shareholders, including $3.6 billion in dividends and $5.2 billion in share repurchases.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: there are 47 secondary USD bonds totaling $68.5 billion. The Comcast credit curve has 15 undervalued and 6 long trade indicators as of October 31, 2025.
Recent USD Supply: May 5, 2025, CMCSA 6.05 05/15/55 issued +122/30Y and currently trades +8bp to NIP.
Equity Trading Model Indicator: CMCSA equity is a long trade indicator at its current price.
Amazon (AMZN, A1/AA attractive long credit/equity) Q3 ended September 30
Amazon reported Q3 operating revenue of $180.2 billion, up 13% YoY. Operating income rose 12% YoY.
3Q Operating Metrics:
North America Revenue: $106.3 billion (+11% YoY)
International Revenue: $40.9 billion (+14% YoY)
AWS Revenue: $33.0 billion (+20% YoY)
Operating Income: $17.4 billion (flat YoY; $21.7 billion excluding $4.3 billion in charges)
Net Income: $21.2 billion (+39% YoY)
9mos Operating Cash Flow: $96.2 billion (+9% YoY)
9mos Free Cash Flow: $11.3 billion (â12% YoY)
Amazon provided a fourth-quarter sales guidance of $206 billion to $213 billion, which represents 10% to 13% growth.
Financial Position: Amazon's net cash was $43.6 billion in Q3 2025, compared to $33.2 billion in September 2024. Amazon's policy is to reinvest all cashflow into its business.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are 25 secondary USD AMZN bonds totaling $56.5 billion. 2 have undervalued traded indicators and 1 has a long trade indicator.
Recent USD Supply: Amazon has not sold debt since 2022.
Equity Trading Model Indicator: AMZN equity is a long trade below $223.8/shr.
Mastercard (MA, Aa3/A+ attractive short credit/equity) Q3 ended September 30
Mastercard reported Q3 operating revenue of $8.6 billion, up 15% YoY. Operating income rose 15% YoY.
3Q Operating Metrics:
Value-Added Services Revenue: +22% YoY
Gross Dollar Volume (GDV): +9% YoY
Cross-Border Volume: +15% YoY
Switched Transactions: +10% YoY
9mos Operating Cash Flow: $9.8 billion (+7% YoY)
9mos Free Cash Flow: $8.6 billion (+5% YoY)
4Q Guidance was for double digit revenue growth.
Financial Position: Mastercard's net debt was $9.6 billion in Q3 2025, compared to $6.9 billion in September 2025. During 2025, Mastercard returned a total of $10.2 billion to shareholders in 2025, consisting of $2.1 billion in dividends and $8.1 billion in share repurchases.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: 20 secondary USD bonds totaling $16.15 billion. 7 have overvalued and 1 short trade indicator.
Recent USD Supply: February 18, 2025, MA 4.95 03/15/32 +50/7Y trades -17bp to NIP
Equity Trading Model Indicator: MA equity is a long trade indicator at its current price.
Enterprise Products Partners (EPD, A3/Aâ attractive short credit/equity) Q3 ended September 30
Enterprise reported Q3 operating revenue of $12.02 billion, down 12.7% YoY. Operating income fell 5% YoY.
3Q Operating Metrics:
Adjusted EBITDA: $2.41 billion (â1% YoY)
Distributable Cash Flow (DCF): $1.8 billion (â10% YoY)
Adjusted Cash Flow from Operations: $2.1 billion (flat YoY)
Free Cash Flow: $96 million (â90% YoY)
NGL Pipeline Volumes: 4.7 million BPD (+9% YoY)
Crude Oil Pipeline Volumes: 2.6 million BPD (+4% YoY)
Natural Gas Pipeline Volumes: 21.0 TBtus/d (+8% YoY)
Enterprise products provided specific capital expenditure (CapEx) guidance for 2025 and 2026 and announced an increase in their share buyback program, while also indicating expectations for a significant increase in free cash flow in 2026.
Financial Position: Enterprise's net debt was $31.3 billion in 2Q 2025, compared to $30.2 billion in June 2025 Over the last 12 months, Enterprise returned a total of $4.2 billion to shareholders, consisting of $3.8 billion in dividends and $0.4 billion in share repurchases.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are 25 secondary EPD USD bonds totaling $25.3 billion on market capital. 15 EPD bonds carry systematic overvalued trade indicators, and 2 bonds have short trade indicators.
Recent USD Supply: June 17, 2025, EPD 5.2 01/15/36 +85/10Y and is trading +2bp to NIP.
Equity Trading Model Indicator: EPD equity is a short trade indicator above $33/shr.
Merck (MRK, Aa3/A+ attractive long credit/equity) Q3 ended September 30
Merck reported Q3 operating revenue of $17.3 billion, up 4% YoY. Operating income rose 6% YoY.
3Q Operating Metrics:
KEYTRUDA Sales: $8.1 billion (+8% YoY)
GARDASIL Sales: $1.7 billion (â25% YoY; â3% ex-China)
Animal Health Revenue: $1.6 billion (+9% YoY)
WINREVAIR Sales: $360 million (+141% YoY)
Lynparza Sales: $379 million (+12% YoY)
Welireg Sales: $196 million (+41% YoY)
9Mos Operating Cash Flow: $18.5 billion
9Mos Free Cash Flow: $14.7 billion (+12% YoY)
Merck narrowed (did not raise) guidance in their 3Q press release.
Financial Position: Merck's balance sheet data will not be disclosed until they file their 10-Q. In 2025 Merck returned a total of $7.2 billion to shareholders, consisting of $2.2 billion in dividends and $5.0 billion in share repurchases.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are 31 secondary MRK USD bonds totaling $40 billion in total market capital. 2 are undervalued and 3 have long trade indicators.
Recent USD Supply: September 5, 2025, MRK 5.7 09/15/55 +75/30Y now trades +2bp to NIP
Equity Trading Model Indicator: MRK equity is a long trade indicator below $83/shr.
Eli Lilly (LLY, A1/AAâ attractive long credit/equity) Q3 ended September 30
Eli Lilly reported Q3 operating revenue of $17.6 billion, up 54% YoY. Operating income rose 62% YoY to $7.37 billion.
3Q Operating Metrics:
- Mounjaro Revenue: $6.52 billion (+109% YoY)
- Zepbound Revenue: $3.59 billion (+184% YoY)
- Verzenio Revenue: $1.47 billion (+7% YoY)
9 Mos Operating Cash Flow: rose +110% to $13.6 billion.
9 Mos Free Cash Flow was $5.4 billion after acquisition.
Lilly raised its full-year guidance to $63 billion to $63.5 billion in revenue, up from the previous range of $60 billion to $62 billion. The company also increased its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) forecast.
Financial Position: Company returned $6.6 billion of capital to shareholders in 2025 while net debt rose 55% to $41 billion.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are 32 liquid USD LLY secondary bonds in circulation totaling $34 billion. 15 carry systematic credit trading overvalued indicators. One has a short trade indicator.
Recent USD Supply: August 18, 2025, LLY 4.9 10/15/35 +57/10Y now trades +3bp to NIP
Equity Trading Model Indicator: LLY is a long trade indicator below $769.50/shr.
Gilead Sciences (GILD, A3/A- attractive short credit/long equity) Q3 ended September 30
Gilead reported Q3 operating revenue of $7.1 billion, up 5% YoY. Operating income rose 8% YoY to $2.4 billion.
3Q Operating Metrics:
- HIV Product Revenue: $4.2 billion (+4% YoY)
- Oncology Product Revenue: $1.1 billion (+7% YoY)
- Veklury (COVID-19) Revenue: $0.6 billion (+3% YoY)
- Operating Cash Flow: $2.7 billion (+6% YoY)
- Free Cash Flow: $2.3 billion (+5% YoY)
Gilead expects total product sales: to be between $28.4 billion and $28.7 billion (previously $28.3 billion to $28.7 billion)
Financial Position: Net debt was $19.8 billion in Q2 2025, compared to $17 billion in March 2025 and $18.3 billion in September 2024. Gilead returned $3.9 billion to shareholders YTD, including $2.1 billion in dividends and $1.8 billion in share repurchases.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are currently 19 secondary USD GILD bonds totaling $24 billion in circulation. 11 have undervalued trade indicators and 3 short trade indicators.
Recent USD Supply: Gilead has not come to market in 2025.
Equity Trading Model Indicator: GILD equity is a long trade indicator below $114.07.
Altria (MO, A3/BBB+ attractive short credit/ long equity) Q3 ended September 30
Altria reported Q3 operating revenue of $5.28 billion, up 2.1% YoY. Operating income rose 3.4% YoY.
3Q Operating Metrics:
- Smokeable Products Revenue: $4.1 billion (+1.8% YoY)
- Oral Tobacco Products Revenue: $0.6 billion (+3.2% YoY)
- Operating Cash Flow: $2.1 billion (+4.5% YoY)
- Free Cash Flow: $1.9 billion (+5.1% YoY)
Altria narrowed its full year adjusted diluted EPS guidance to a range of $5.37 to $5.45, representing a growth of 3.5% to 5.0% from 2024. This guidance was a slight increase.
Financial Position: Net debt was $26.4 billion in Q3 2025, compared to $26.1 billion in June 2025 and $25.7 billion in September 2024. Altria returned $1.3 billion to shareholders in Q3 and $3.9 billion YTD.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are currently 16 secondary USD MO bonds totaling $18.2 billion in market capital. 6 bonds have overvalued trading indicators, and 4 bonds are short trade indicators.
Recent USD Supply: August 4, 2025, MO 5 ¼ 08/06/35 +112/10Y trades -10bp to NIP.
Equity Trading Model Indicator: MO equity is a long trade indicator at its current price.
Disclaimer - This report is not intended as, and does not constitute an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All data, levels, opinions, and representations herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The authors of this report assume no liability for losses or damages arising from the use of this information. Investors should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The information in this report is based on sources believed to be reliable, but no guarantee is made as to its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness.