G-255 Issuers Reporting Q3 Results September 30-31, 2025
Earnings Digest
We saw more unenthusiastic earnings results on Friday and Monday. What could be a silver lining, however, is that energy pricing is not strong. This has proven to allow shippers (Rail and Air) to make the best of low order or volume growth with lower cost and higher cashflow.
We are almost halfway through earnings season and there is no longer any doubt about the re-levering of the world's largest corporate balance sheets and the use (perhaps not all) of the cash raised. We will provide separate sector reporting.
We will see more money repatriated to shareholders via share buyback, dividends and corporate borrowing in 2025 than in any year prior.
Intesa Sanpaolo (ISPIM, Baa3/BBB attractive short credit/ long equity) Q3 ended September 30
Intesa reported Q3 revenue that fell -2.3% and operating income that fell -5.3 YoY.
Equity Trading Model Indicator: ISP equity is a long trade indicator at current price.
ISPIM not is retaining capital YoY
3Q Deposits are not disclosed until ISPIM releases its final 3Q report in late November.
3Q Asset quality is declining QoQ and YoY.
3Q Client assets under management rose 4.2% QoQ and 10%YoY
3Q Loans rose by +1% QoQ and +5% YoY.
3Q Net interest income fell -1% QoQ and fell -3.2% YoY
3Q Fee Income was flat QoQ and +6% YoY
Management confirmed its guidance for a full-year 2025 net income of "well above €9 billion"
Financial Position: Tier 1 capital is 13.9% vs 13.4 % at June 30 and 13.9% on September 30, 2024
Company announced planned 2025 capital distributions: €8.1 billion, a 5% increase over the first 9 mos. of 2024. ISPIM's net balance sheet debt is now up + €15 billion YoY
Credit Trading Indicator: The ISPIM secondary USD trading curve has 12 liquid bonds (fixed and floating rate bank notes, Sr. Holdco and subordinated bonds and Perp) totaling $13.25 billion with 4 overvalued trade indicators and 2 short trade indicators.
Recent new USD supply: was in 2023
Equity Trading Indicator: ISP IM is a long trade indicator below €5.27
Prudential Financial (PRU, A3/A attractive long credit/equity) Q3 ended September 30
Prudential reported Q3 Revenue that fell -8% YoY. Operating income rose to $1.431 billion from $448 million YoY.
3Q Operating Metrics:
PGIM Revenue: $1.2 billion (+3% QoQ, +5% YoY)
U.S. Businesses Revenue: $8.7 billion (+4% QoQ, +6% YoY)
International Businesses Revenue: $3.2 billion (+5% QoQ, +7% YoY)
Operating Cash Flow: $2.9 billion (+6% QoQ, +8% YoY)
Free Cash Flow: $2.4 billion (+5% QoQ, +7% YoY)
Prudential projects a 5-8% EPS growth rate over the next three years.
Financial Position: Company has just over $3 billion of net cash and has returned $2.3 billion to shareholders in 2025.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: The PRU secondary USD trading curve has 33 liquid bonds (fixed and floating rate bank notes, Sr. Holdco and subordinated bonds) totaling $23.75 billion with no undervalued or long trade indicators.
Recent USD Supply: March 11, 2025, PRU 5.2 03/14/35 issued +95/10Y trades -20bp to NIP
Equity Trading Model Indicator: PRU equity is a long trade indicator at its current price.
Aon (AON, Baa2/A- attractive short credit/ long equity) Q3 ended September 30
Aon reported Q3 operating revenue 7% YoY. Operating income rose 31% YoY.
3Q Operating Revenue Metrics:
Commercial Risk Solutions: $1.5 billion (+9% YoY)
Reinsurance Solutions: $1.1 billion (+8% YoY)
Health Solutions: $0.9 billion (+6% YoY)
Wealth Solutions: $0.5 billion (+5% YoY)
Operating Cash Flow: $1.15 billion (+13% YoY)
Free Cash Flow: $1.08 billion (+13% YoY)
Aon reaffirmed its full-year 2025 guidance, projecting mid-single-digit or higher organic revenue growth, adjusted operating margin expansion, and strong growth in "adjusted earnings."
Financial Position: Net debt on the AON balance sheet is flat QoQ and YoY at just under $14 billion. Company plans to return $1 billion to shareholders in 2025.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are 22 secondary AON USD bonds totaling $16.3 billion. 5 short trade indicators for AON as of Friday October 31.
Recent USD Supply: No new supply in 2025
Equity Trading Model Indicator: AON equity is a long trade indicator at current price.
Charter Communications (CHTR, Ba1/BBB- attractive short credit/long equity) Q3 ended September 30
Charter reported Q3 operating revenue of $13.7 billion, down 0.9% YoY. Operating earnings fell -6%
3Q Operating Metrics:
- Mobile Line Additions: 493,000 (+22% YoY)
- Broadband Customers: 29.8 million (â1.5% YoY)
- Video Customers: 12.6 million (â3.5% YoY)
- Operating Cash Flow: $4.5 billion (+15% YoY)
- Free Cash Flow: $1.6 billion (flat YoY)
Management reaffirmed 2025 capex guidance at $11.5 billion and expects flat to slightly positive full-year EBITDA growth.
Financial Position: Net debt was $94.7 billion in Q3 2025, compared to $94.8 billion in June 2025 and $94.5 billion in September 2024. Charter returned $2.2 billion to shareholders YTD via share repurchases.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are currently 59 secondary USD CHTR bonds totaling $94 billion. 31 have overvalued trading indicators and none have short trade indicators.
Recent USD Supply: August 18, 2025, CHTR 5.85 12/01/35 issued + 152/10Y bond trades +30bp to NIP
Equity Trading Model Indicator: CHTR equity is a long trade indicator at current price.
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE, A3/Aâ attractive long credit/equity) Q3 ended September 30
ICE reported Q3 operating revenue of $2.4 billion, up 3% YoY. Operating earnings rose 14% YoY
3Q Operating Metrics:
Mortgage Technology Revenue: $528 million (+4% YoY)
Exchanges Revenue: $1861mm (-3% YoY)
Fixed income and data services revenue: $618mm (+5% YoY)
Operating Cash Flow: $2.1 billion (+8% YoY)
Free Cash Flow: $1.6 billion (+21% YoY) .
Management reaffirmed full-year guidance and expects continued margin expansion in Mortgage Technology.
Financial Position: Net debt was $17.0 billion in Q3 2025, compared to $17.0 billion in June 2025 and $19.3 billion in September 2024. ICE returned $1.7 billion to shareholders YTD, including $894 million in share repurchases
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are 14 secondary ICE USD bonds totaling $15.9 billion. 2 have undervalued trade indicators and 4 long trade indicators.
Recent USD Supply: ICE has not sold any new bonds in 2025.
Equity Trading Model Indicator: ICE equity is a long trade indicator at its current price.
AbbVie (ABBV, A3/Aâ attractive short credit/long equity) Q3 ended September 30
AbbVie reported Q3 operating revenue of $15.8 billion, up 9.1% YoY. Operating earnings fell 50% YoY.
3Q Operating Metrics:
- Immunology Portfolio Revenue: $7.9 billion (+11.9% YoY)
- Neuroscience Portfolio Revenue: $2.8 billion (+20.2% YoY)
- Operating Cash Flow: $5.9 billion (+7% YoY)
- Free Cash Flow: $4.3 billion (+5% YoY)
Management raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $10.61–$10.65 and announced a 5.5% dividend increase for 2026.
Financial Position: Net debt was $64 billion in Q2 2025, compared to $64.7 billion in March 2025 and $57.5 billion in June 2024. AbbVie returned $6.5 billion to shareholders YTD, including $3.2 billion in dividends and $3.3 billion in share repurchases.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are currently 22 ABBV secondary USD bonds totaling $41.6 billion debt market capital. 19 have overvalued trade indicators and there are no ABBV short trade indicators.
Recent USD Supply: February 18, 2025, $1 bi ABBV 5.2 03/15/35 +67/10Y and now trade -1bp to NIP
Equity Trading Model Indicator: ABBV equity is a long trade indicator below $207.73.
Dominion Energy (D, Baa2/BBB+ attractive short credit/long equity) Q3 ended September 30
Dominion reported Q3 operating revenue of $7.8 billion, up 7.5% YoY. Operating earnings rose 16% YoY.
3Q Operating Metrics:
Dominion Energy Virginia income: YoY Change: +2.6%
Dominion Energy South Carolina income: YoY Change: +14.3%
Operating Cash Flow: $2.3 billion (+6% YoY)
Free Cash Flow: â$3.8 billion (â15% YoY)
Dominion reaffirmed its long-term annual operating earnings growth target of 5% to 7% through 2029,
Financial Position: Net debt was $47.8 billion in Q3 2025, compared to $45.9 billion in June 2025 and $44.3 billion in September 2024. Dominion returned $2.1 billion to shareholders YTD via dividends.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are 54 liquid Dominion Energy secondary USD bonds totaling $30.3 billion in circulation. 2 D bonds carry overvalued trade indicators, and 1 D bond has a short trade indicator.
Recent USD Supply: September 8, 22025,$825mm Virginia Elec Pwr D 4.9 09/15/35 +87/10 trades +2bp to NIP
Equity Trading Model Indicator: D equity is a long trade indicator at current price.
Chevron (CVX, Aa2/AAâ attractive short credit/long equity) Q3 ended September 30
Chevron reported Q3 operating revenue of $49.7 billion, up 2% YoY. Operating earnings fell – 18%
3Q Operating Metrics:
Production: 4.1 million BOE/day (+21% YoY)
Refining Volume: +8% YoY
Operating Cash Flow: $9.4 billion (â3% YoY)
Free Cash Flow: $7.0 billion (+50% YoY)
Management reaffirmed full-year production guidance at the high end of 6–8% growth and announced a 4% dividend increase.
Financial Position: Net debt was $33.8 billion in Q3 2025, compared to $25.4 billion in June 2025 and $21.1 billion in September 2024. Chevron returned $6.0 billion to shareholders in Q3 and $18.2 billion YTD.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are 25 secondary CVX USD bonds totaling $19.6 billion. 6 bonds have overvalued indicators and 2 CVX bonds have short trade indicators.
Recent USD Supply: August 11, 2025, CVX 4.3 10/15/30 issued +50/5Y. Bond trades -9bp to NIP
Equity Trading Model Indicator: CVX equity is a long trade indicator below 153.42/shr.
Exxon Mobil (XOM, Aa2/AA- attractive short credit/long equity) Q3 ended September 30
Exxon reported Q3 operating revenue of $85.3 billion, down 5.3% YoY. Operating earnings fell -12% YoY
3Q Operating Metrics:
Output: 4.8 million BOE/day (+3% QoQ)
Upstream earnings fell -8.1 YoY
Energy Product earnings rose +38% YoY
Chemical earnings fell -42% YoY
Operating Cash Flow: $14.8 billion (â2% YoY)
Free Cash Flow: $6.3 billion (â4% YoY)
Management expects over $3 billion in additional earnings in 2026 from the ten key projects started in 2025, assuming constant prices and margins. The plan to repurchase $20 billion of shares in 2025 remains on track. The company also increased its fourth-quarter 2025 dividend to $1.03 per share.
Financial Position: Net debt was $34.2 billion in Q3 2025, compared to $32.7 billion in June 2025 and $30.9 billion in September 2024. Exxon returned $27.8 billion to shareholders YTD, including $5.1 billion in Q3 share repurchases and $4.2 billion in dividends. Management reaffirmed capital discipline and expects over $3 billion in added earnings from 2025 project startups.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are 14 USD XOM secondary USD bonds totaling $22.42 billion of market capital. 9 have undervalued trade indicators.
Recent USD Supply: Company has not sold new bonds in 5 years.
Equity Trading Model Indicator: XOM equity is a long trade indicator below $111.65.
Centene (CNC, Ba1/BB- attractive long credit/equity) Q3 ended September 30
Centene reported Q3 operating revenue of $49.7 billion, up 18.2% YoY and reported an operating loss owing to a $6.7 billion goodwill impairment charge.
3Q Operating Metrics:
Medicaid Membership: 12.7 million (â2.5% YoY)
Marketplace Membership: 5.8 million (+29.5% YoY)
Operating Cash Flow: $1.36 billion (+9% YoY)
Free Cash Flow: $1.1 billion (+7% YoY)
Management raised full year adjusted EPS guidance to at least $2.00 and expects 5.5% Medicaid rate adjustment for 2025.
Financial Position: Centene has net cash of roughly $1.5 billion as of September 30, 2025.Centene returned $1.2 billion to shareholders YTD via share repurchases.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are 9 CNC secondary USD bonds totaling $17 billion in market capital. 2 CNC bonds have undervalued trade indicators.
Recent USD Supply: Centene has not sold bonds in 4 years.
Equity Trading Model Indicator: CNC equity is a long trade indicator at current price.
Cigna (CI, Baa1/A- attractive short credit/ long equity) Q3 ended September 30
Cigna reported Q3 ended September 30 operating revenue of $48.6 billion (+6% YoY). Operating income was $4.1 billion (+7% YoY).
3Q Operating Metrics:
Pharmacy Revenues: YoY Change: +16.1%
Premiums: YoY Change: â20.6%
Fees and Other Revenues: YoY Change: +12.6%
Net Investment Income: YoY Change: +174%
Operating Cash Flow: $12.3 billion (9mos, +10% YoY)
Free Cash Flow: $9.7 billion (9mos, +8% YoY)
Full-Year Revenue Guidance: Reaffirmed at least $190 billion for 2025.
Medical Care Ratio (MCR): Expected to remain within the 80–82% range for the full year.
Financial Position: Cigna's net debt was $27.2 billion in Q3 2025, vs $25.6 billion in June 2025 and $26 billion in September 2024. Total debt was $34.2 billion in Q3 2025, vs $30.9 billion in June 2025 and $32.8 billion in September 2024. Over the last 12 months, Cigna returned a total of $5.4 billion to shareholders over the last 12 months, including $1.4 billion in dividends and $4.0 billion in share repurchases to shareholders.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are currently 25 Cigna secondary USD bonds totaling $22.9 billion in circulation. 6 CI bonds have overvalued indicators. 7 CI bonds carry short trading indicators
Recent USD Supply: September 2, 2025, $1.25 billion CI 4 â 09/15/32 + 90/7Y now trades -7bp to NIP
Equity Trading Model Indicator: CI equity is a long trade indicator at its current price.
Southern Company (SO, Baa1/BBB+ attractive short credit/ long equity) Q3 ended September 30
Southern Company reported Q3 ended September 30 operating revenue of $6.8 billion (+4% YoY). Operating income was $1.9 billion (+6% YoY).
3Q Operating Metrics:
Traditional Electric Operating Companies' operating income: YoY Change: â12.2%
Southern Power: operating income: YoY Change: â40.7%
Southern Company Gas operating income: YoY Change: â1.9%
Operating Cash Flow: $8.1 billion (9mos, +7% YoY)
Free Cash Flow: $2.3 billion (9mos, +5% YoY)
Full-Year EPS Guidance: Reaffirmed $3.95–$4.05 per share for 2025.
Rate Base Growth: Management expects continued growth across regulated utilities, driven by infrastructure investments and clean energy transition.
Financial Position: Southern Company's net debt was $69 billion in Q3 2025, vs $68 billion in June 2025 and $62.6 billion in September 2024. Total debt was $72.3 billion in Q3 2025, vs $69.3 billion in June 2025 and $63.6 billion in September 2024. Over the last 12 months, Southern Company returned a total of $3.7 billion to shareholders over the last 12 months, including $2.9 billion in dividends and $0.8 billion in share repurchases.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are currently 110 secondary USD bonds totaling $66.4 billion. 26 SO and Subsidiary bonds have overvalued systematic credit trading indicators. 22 SO bonds have short trade indicators.
Recent USD Supply: September 24, 2025, Geogia Power $750mm SO 4 10/01/28 +42/3Y trades +2 bp to NIP
Equity Trading Model Indicator: SO equity is a long trade indicator at its current price.
Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY, A2/A attractive long credit/equity) Q3 ended September 30
Bristol Myers reported Q3 operating revenue of $12.2 billion (+3% YoY, +2% QoQ). Operating income was $4.2 billion (+5.3% YoY).
3Q Operating Metrics:
- Oncology Portfolio Revenue: $2.5 billion (+7% YoY)
- Hematology Portfolio Revenue: $2.6 billion (â25% YoY)
- Cardiovascular Portfolio Revenue: $4.0 billion (+25% YoY)
- Immunology Portfolio Revenue: $964 million (+3% YoY)
- Neuroscience Portfolio Revenue: $161 million (+9% YoY)
- Operating Cash Flow: $6.3 billion (+12.5% YoY)
- Free Cash Flow: $4.2 billion (+10.3% YoY)
Management Guidance: Management raised full-year 2025 revenue guidance to $47.5–$48.0 billion, reaffirmed gross margin at ~72%, and narrowed non-GAAP EPS guidance to $6.40–$6.60.
Financial Position: Net debt was $32.1 billion in Q3 2025, compared to $33.8 billion in Q2 2025 and $35.4 billion in Q3 2024. The company has paid down $6.7 billion of its targeted $10 billion debt reduction goal for 2025–2026.
Capital Returns: Bristol Myers returned $5.9 billion to shareholders YTD, including $2.1 billion in dividends and $3.8 billion in share repurchases. ~$5 billion remains under the current repurchase authorization.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are 32 secondary BMY USD bonds totaling $42 billion. 1 secondary BMY bond has an undervalued trade indicator and 1 long trade indicator.
Recent USD Supply: Bristol Myers has not sold USD debt since February 2024.
Equity Trading Model Indicator: BMY equity is a long trade indicator at current price.
Disclaimer - This report is not intended as, and does not constitute an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All data, levels, opinions, and representations herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The authors of this report assume no liability for losses or damages arising from the use of this information. Investors should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The information in this report is based on sources believed to be reliable, but no guarantee is made as to its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness.