American Tower, Mondelez, Edison International, UBS, Deutsche Bank, Santander, GSK, Mercedez Benz, CVS, Verizon, and Caterpillar Report Q3 Results and G-255 Trading Indicators for October 29, 2025
American Tower (AMT, Baa3/BBB+ attractive short credit / long equity) 3Q ended September 30
American Tower reported operating revenue growth of 7.7% YoY in their third quarter. Cash Flow from
Operations rose 7% YoY
3Q Operating Metrics
Non-lease property revenue rose 5% YoY.
Service revenue rose 100% YoY.
Property lease revenue rose 6% YoY.
9mos operating cash flow fell by -2.7% to $4.04 bill.
9mos free cash flow fell 12% to $2.65 billion
Company guidance: Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) per share to be in the range of $10.46 to $10.65.
Financial Position: American Tower's business necessitates the use of borrowed funds to continue to their tower rental base and reduce leverage when selling assets. As AMT's growth activity has been minimal over the past 12 months, net debt has grown minimally to $35.3 billion and net payout to shareholders is unchanged.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are currently 32 American Tower secondary USD bonds in circulation totaling $22.5 billion of market capital. 2 have overvalued and 10 have short trade indicators.
Recent new supply: March 11, 2025, AMT 5.35 03/15/35 +110/UST 10Y currently trades -27bp to NIP.
Equity Trading Model Indicator: AMT equity is a long trade indicator below $175/shr
Mondelez (MDLZ, Baa1/BBB attractive short credit / long equity) 3Q ended September 30
Mondelez reported operating revenue growth of 5.9% YoY in Q3 2025. Operating income dell
-35% YoY
3Q Operating Metrics
Overall pricing rose 8.2% YoY.
Volume / mix fell -4.5% YoY.
Organic growth rose 3.8% YoY.
Occupancy rose +1.1% YoY to 112.1%.
9mos operating cash flow fell by -37% to $2.2 bill.
9mos free cash flow fell -50% to $1.2 billion
Company did not raise 4Q revenue or earnings guidance with 4%+ organic net revenue growth and approximately 15% EPS decline on a constant currency basis.
Financial Position: 9 mos. return to MDLZ shareholders in 2025 has been $5 billion or more than double the company's cashflow from operations. Net debt is up 13% to $20 billion.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are currently 21 Mondelez secondary USD bonds in circulation totaling $13.2 billion of market capital. 3 have overvalued and 6 have short trade indicators.
Recent new supply: May 1, 2025, MDLZ 5 â 05/06/35 +95/10Y currently trades -27bp to NIP.
Equity Trading Model Indicator: MDLZ equity is a short trade indicator above $67.5/shr
Edison International (EIX, Baa2/BB+ attractive short credit/long equity) reports 3Q results
3Q 2025 revenue growth was 11% YoY and operating earnings doubled YoY.
3Q Operating Metrics
• 9 mos. Operating cash flow rose 11% YoY to $4.3 billion
• 9 Free cash outflow after capex was flat at = -$300mm.
• Management did not provide 4Q revenue or cashflow guidance.
Financial Position: Similar to most Utilities EIX net debt continues to grow and is almost $38 billion. However, EIX has several regulatory and Wildfire recovery assets which will slow net growth materially in the future. In 3Q 2025 EIX is de-levered slightly.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are 23 EIX secondary USD bonds in circulation ($15.5 billion of overall market capital), and no EIX bonds carry overvalued or short credit trading indicators.
Recent new EIX supply: March 12, 2025, EIX 6.2 09/15/55 (1st Mort) 160/30Y bond trades -23bp to NIP
Equity Indicator: EIX equity is a long trade at its current price.
UBS (UBS A2/A- attractive long credit/equity) reported 3Q earnings.
Revenue rose 3% YoY while operating earnings rose +47% YoY
UBS is retaining capital and
3Q Deposits rose 1% QoQ and 4% YoY.
3Q Asset quality is declining slightly QoQ and flat YoY.
3Q Client assets rose +5% in the quarter and 14% YoY.
3Q Loan growth rose 1% QoQ and 2% YoY.
3Q Net interest income rose +1% QoQ and +10% YoY
3Q Net trading income rose 3% QoQ and fell -5% YoY
3Q Fee and commission income was +7% QoQ and +11% YoY
UBS plans to execute up to $0.9 billion in share buybacks during the fourth quarter to meet its full-year target of $3 billion for 2025.
Dividend accrual: The company will continue to accrue for a double-digit growth in its ordinary dividend per share
Financial Position: Tier 1 capital is 14.8 % vs 14.4 % at June 30 and 14.8% September 30, 2024. UBS continues to shrink its balance sheet as global interest rates fall. Total debt on the UBS balance sheet fell -$9.3 billion QoQ and $6.6 billion YoY. At the same time UBS has returned over $6 billion this year to shareholders and maintained their CET 1 ratio YoY.
Credit Trading Indicator: The UBS secondary trading USD curve has 55 liquid bonds (floating and fixed rate bank notes and Senior Holdco and Subordinated bonds and Perp) totaling $87 billion with 1 undervalued and 4 long trade indicators.
Recent new USD supply: September 18, 2025, UBS 5.741 09/10/36 +90/10 trades +5p to NIP
Equity Trading Indicator: UBS is a long trade indicator below CHF 30/shr
Deutsche Bank (DB, Baa1/BBB attractive long credit/equity) reported 3Q quarter earnings
Revenue rose 7% YoY while operating income rose 8% YoY
Deutsche Bank is retaining capital YoY
3Q Deposits rose by 1.5% QoQ and +2% YoY.
3Q Asset quality is Improving QoQ and YoY.
3Q Client assets rose 3% YoY
3Q Loans rose by +3% QoQ and +5% YoY.
3Q Net interest income rose 3.1% QoQ and +7.2% YoY
3Q Private Bank Income rose +2% QoQ and +4% YoY
3Q Investment bank Income rose +11% QoQ and +18% YoY
Management reaffirmed raised 2025 net income target.
Financial Position: Tier 1 capital is 14.5% vs 14.2 % at June 30 and 13.8% September 30, 2024
Company announced planned 2025 capital distributions: €2.3 billion, a 50% increase over 2024. DB now has net cash on its balance sheet owing to balance sheet reduction as global interest rates fall.
Credit Trading Indicator: The DB secondary USD trading curve has 37 liquid bonds (fixed and floating rate bank notes, Sr. Holdco and subordinated bonds and Perp) totaling $61.6 billion with 26 overvalued trade indicators and 10 short trade indicators.
Recent new USD supply: July 28, 2025, DB 4.95 08/04/31 +98/5Y currently trading +1bp to NIP
Equity Trading Indicator: DBK GY is a long trade indicator below €28.58
Banco Santander (SANTAN, Baa1/A- attractive short credit/long equity) reported 3Q quarter earnings
Revenue fell -5.3% YoY while operating income fell -5.6% YoY
Banco Santander is retaining capital YoY
3Q Deposits rose by 1.5% QoQ and +2% YoY.
3Q Asset quality is flat QoQ improving YoY.
3Q Client assets rose 4% QoQ and 14%YoY
3Q Loans rose by +1% QoQ and +5% YoY.
3Q Net interest income fell -1% QoQ and fell -2.3% YoY
3Q Fee Income rose .5% QoQ and +3.3% YoY
Management reaffirmed raised 2025 net income target, Return on Tangible Equity (RoTE): approximately 16.5% Revenue: around €62 billion.
Financial Position: Tier 1 capital is 13.1% vs 13 % at June 30 and 12.5% on September 30, 2024
Company announced planned 2025 capital distributions: €3.4 billion, a 15% increase over the first 9 mos. of 202 2024. Santander has seen its balance sheet move from a €34.6 billion net cash position 24 months ago to net debt position of €43 billion. The company's capital position has improved by 6.6% over the same period
Credit Trading Indicator: The Santander secondary USD trading curve has 48 liquid bonds (fixed and floating rate bank notes, Sr. Holdco and subordinated bonds and Perp) totaling $68 billion with 15 overvalued trade indicators and 23 short trade indicators.
Recent new USD supply: Jan 28, 2025, SANTAN 6.033 01/17/35 4.95 08/04/31 +135/10Y currently trading -45bp to NIP
Equity Trading Indicator: SAN SM is a long trade indicator below €7.93
GSK (GSK, A2/A attractive long credit/equity) 3Q ended September 30
Glaxo reported operating revenue growth of 7% YoY in their third quarter. Operating income came in at £2.56
billion, the highest quarterly result since 2020.
3Q Operating Metrics
Specialty Medicines revenue rose +16% YoY
Vaccines revenue rose 2% YoY
General medicines revenue rose 4% YoY
9 Mos Operating Cashflow rose +19% YoY to £5.4 billion
9 Mos Free Cashflow fell to £1.4 bil from £4.2biln
Company forecasts full-year 2025 turnover growth of between 6% to 7% (previously towards the top end of the range of between 3% to 5%); Core operating profit growth of between 9% to 11% (previously towards the top end of the range of between 6% to 8%)
Financial Position: GSK returned £$2.6 billion to shareholders in 2025 while de-levering its balance sheet materially (-£2 billion in net debt) during 3Q 2025. Total debt on the GSK balance sheet is declining YoY.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are currently 8 secondary USD GSK bonds in circulation totaling $8.55 billion. The systematic trading model has 1 long trading indicator, that being the shortest dated GSK bond in the US capital structure.
Recent Novartis USD supply: March 6, 2025, GSK 4 â 04/15/35 sold +70/10Y and trades -14bp to NIP
Equity Trading Model Indicator: GSK LN equity is a long indicator below Gbp 1547/shr.
Mercedes Benz (MBBGR , A2/A attractive long both credit and equity) reported 3Q quarter earnings
Revenue fell -7% YoY while operating income that fell – 70% YoY
3Q Operating Metrics
Total unit sales fell -8% YoY.
Electric Vehicle unit sales fell -4% YoY.
Plug in Hybrid unit sales fell -7 YoY
Top end unit sales fell -10% YoY
Auto operating profit rose to $713mm from a slight loss in 3Q 2024
Mercedes Benz Motor Credit profit rose 24% to $566mm
9 mos. operating cash flow rose 25% YoY to €15.2 bil
9 mos. free cash flow rose by 11% to €7.3 bil
Company anticipates group EBIT to be over 15% lower and free cash flow potentially more than 25% lower than 2024 reduced 4Q and 2026 operating income guidance owing to aluminum shortages and tariffs.
Financial Position: Net debt on the Mercedes Benz balance sheet continues to fall as unit sales fall. Net debt on the MBGGR balance sheet is down -12% YoY to €79.2 billion. Mercedes has returned €8.2 billion to shareholders in the first 9 months of 2025. Mercedes Benz Motor Credit balance sheet is not growing, and debt is maturing rapidly.
Credit Trading Indicator: The Mercedes Benz secondary USD trading curve has 20 liquid bonds (Mercedes Benz Motor Credit) totaling $18.1 billion with 1 undervalued indicator.
Recent new USD supply: March 26, 2025, MBGGR 4.65 04/01/27 +65/7Y trades -20bp to NIP
Equity Trading Indicator: MBG GY equity is a short trade above €60/shr.
CVS Healthcare (CVS Baa3/BBB attractive short credit/equity) reports 3Q results
CVS reported 3Q 2025 revenue growth of 12% YoY and operating earnings that declined -50% YoY.
3Q Operating Metrics
Healthcare product revenue rose +8.2% YoY
Healthcare Premiums rose +9.0% YoY
Healthcare Services revenue fell –8.2% YoY
Total Medical Membership is flat QoQ and YOY @ 26.7 mm
9mos Operating cashflow was flat YoY at $7.25 billion.
9mos Free cashflow rose to $3.4 billion from $200mm.
Company raised 2025 guidance for revenue, cashflow and earnings.
Financial Position: CVS balance sheet leverage continues to grow even after discontinuing share repurchases. Net debt is now $54.6 billion and rose by almost $3 billion QoQ. It would appear that company cashflow has stabilized.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are currently 36 liquid secondary USD CVS bonds totalling $53.5 billion. in market capital. There are no overvalued trading indicators and 19 short trade indicators.
Recent new CVS supply: August 11, 2025, CVS 5.45 09/15/35 issued +117/10Y and currently trades -15 bp to NIP.
Equity Indicator: CVS equity is a short trade indicator at its current price.
Verizon (VZ, Baa1/BBB+ attractive long credit and equity) 3Q ended September 30
Verizon reported operating revenue growth of 1.5% YoY in their third quarter. Operating income rose
37% YoY
3Q Operating Metrics
Postpaid drop -167k
Postpaid churn 1.32%
Fiber subscriber loss -67k
Mobility revenue rose 2.3% YoY.
Business Wireline Revenue fell -7.8% YoY.
9 Mos Operating cashflow rose 3% YoY to $28 billion
3Q Free cashflow rose 28% to $16.4 billion
Verizon management reaffirmed its full-year guidance, expecting total wireless service revenue growth of 2.0%–2.8%, adjusted EBITDA growth of 2.5%–3.5%, and adjusted EPS growth of 1.0%–3.0%
Financial Position: During 2025 Verizon returned $8.5 billion to shareholders and has reduced balance sheet leverage by $6.5 billion YoY.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are currently 40 secondary USD Verizon (VZ) bonds in circulation totaling $84 billion of market capital. 2 bonds have undervalued indicators, and no Verizon bonds have long indicators.
Recent Verizon (VZ) USD supply: March 24, 2025, VZ 5 ¼ 04/02/35 VZ 5.401 07/02/37 +95/10Y and currently trades -5 bp to NIP
Equity Trading Model Indicator: VZ Equity is a long indicator at its current price.
Caterpillar (CAT, A2/A attractive short credit/ equity) reports 3Q results
Caterpillar 3Q 2025 revenue rose 9.51% YoY, and operating earnings fell -2.9% YoY.
3Q Operating Metrics
• Energy & Transport revenue rose 17% YoY – prices rose +2% YoY
• Resource Package revenue rose 2% YoY – prices fell YoY
• Construction Industries revenue rose 7% YoY = prices fell YoY
• 9 mos. cash flow fell – 6% YoY to $8.15 billion
• 9 mos. Free cash flow fell -11%.
• Management guided Caterpillar outlook, forecasting "modestly higher" sales and revenues for the full year and strong growth in the fourth quarter.
Financial Position: CAT has returned just over $6.9 bil to shareholders in the first 9 months or more than the company's free cashflow. Net debt is now over $34 billion.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are 21 CAT secondary USD bonds in circulation ($19.4 billion of overall market capital), and 3 bonds carry overvalued systematic credit trading indicators. 9 bonds have short trade indicators.
Recent new supply: August 11, 2025, CAT 4.1 08/15/28 +38/3Y now trades +2bp to NIP.
Equity Indicator: CAT equity is a short trade indicator at its current price.
Disclaimer - This report is not intended as, and does not constitute an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All data, levels, opinions, and representations herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The authors of this report assume no liability for losses or damages arising from the use of this information. Investors should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The information in this report is based on sources believed to be reliable, but no guarantee is made as to its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness.