G-255 Issuers Reporting 3Q Results with Trade Indicators October 31, 2025 and Nov 1 Part 2
*Write - ups will be provided in this afternoon's earnings digest.
Post the Meta 6 part offering and now over 100 of the world's 255 largest issuers of corporate debt having reported September earnings, more companies are adding net debt than in the 33-year history of the systematic trading model.
We will see more money repatriated to shareholders via share buyback, dividends and corporate borrowing in 2025 than in any year prior.
We are also witnessing the more dramatic local immediate equity market response to "earnings that fail to meet analyst expectations." Hence, more large cap corporate debt issuers are seeing their share price (even after repurchasing shares) closer to their lows for 2025. Our systematic trading model no longer sees the share price of 248 of the 255 largest issuers of corporate debt as overvalued.
Corporate cashflow continues to be buoyed by pricing and the devaluation of the US dollar.
Shell (RDSALN, Aa2/A+ attractive short credit/equity) 3Q ended September 30
Shell reported 3Q operating revenue that fell -4.1% YoY. Operating income rose 9% YoY.
3Q Operating Metrics
Integrated gas income fell -2.3% YoY
Upstream income fell -25.4% YoY
Marketing income rose 15% YoY
Chemicals income rose 10-fold YoY
Renewables income swung to a profit from a -$500mm loss in 3Q 2024.
Average liquid and gas price fell -13% YoY
Operating Cashflow fell -17% YoY to $12.2 billion
Free Cashflow fell -7.8% YoY to $10 billion
Shell announced an additional $3.5 billion buyback for 4Q 2025 and that balance sheet leverage would continue to rise. Company also noted that they would scrap quarterly earnings reports " if peers do."
Financial Position: after 4 years of trimming net debt by over $40 billon the Shell balance sheet is back in its customary position – adding net debt. Roughly half of the $22 billion returned to Shell shareholders in the past 12 months was financed via borrowings.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are currently 25 secondary Shell USD bonds in circulation totaling $25.8 billion. The systematic trading model has 13 overvalued and 2 RDSALN short trading indicators.
Recent USD supply: Issuer last sold USD bonds in September 2024.
Equity Trading Model Indicator: SHEL LN equity is a long trade indicator below GBp 2673/shr.
Total Energies (TTE, Aa3/A+ attractive short credit/equity) 3Q ended September 30
Total Energies operating revenue declined -6.4% YoY in their third quarter. Operating income rose 38% YoY.
3Q Operating Metrics
Hydrocarbon Production rose +4% YoY
Hydrocarbon operating income fell -28% YoY
Integrated Power operating income rose 18% YoY
Downstream operating income rose +62% YoY
9mos Operating Cashflow fell -8% YoY to $16.9 billion
9mos Free Cashflow fell by -55% to $2.2 billion
Total A positive contribution to cash flow from working capital is anticipated.
Disposal proceeds are estimated at $2 billion, including divestments in exploration & production and renewable assets. This supports full-year net investment guidance of $17–17.5 billion. Gearing is projected to decline to 15–16% by year-end. Total authorized $1.5 billion in share buybacks for Q4, bringing the 2025 total to $7.5 billion.
Financial Position: TTE has returned $15.825 billion to shareholders in the past 12 months, borrowing roughly 50% of the cash paid to shareholders.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are currently 13 secondary TTE USD bonds in circulation totaling $15.86 billion. The systematic trading model has 7 short trading indicators and 3 overvalued indicators.
Recent supply: TTE last sold USD debt in September 2024.
Equity Trading Model Indicator: TTE equity is a long trade indicator at its current price.
Meta (META, Aa3/AA- attractive long credit / equity) 3Q ended September 30
Meta reported 3Q operating revenue growth of 26.5% YoY. Operating income rose 18% YoY
3Q Operating Metrics
Daily Active Users rose 2% QoQ and 8% YoY.
Ave Revenue/Person rose 12% QoQ and 14% YoY.
YoY Ad Impressions rose 14% YoY.
Price per ad rose 10% YoY
9mos operating cash flow rose 26% YoY to $79.5 billion
9mos free cash flow fell 23% YoY to $31.2 billion
Meta projects revenue to be in the range of $56 billion to $59 billion. The company anticipates continued strong growth in advertising revenue but expects a lower year-over-year revenue contribution from its Reality Labs division.
Financial Position: Meta has generated $172 billion in cash over the past 7 quarters while spending $230 billion. Of that outflow, only $115 billion (50%) relates to capex or reinvestment in the core Meta businesses. The company has returned $65.3 billion to shareholders via share repurchases and dividends and paid $23.7 billion in taxes tied to employee share awards over the same period. In total, 43% of every dollar of operating cash flow has been returned to shareholders and employees.
As a result, Meta's net cash position has declined from $47 billion to $15.6 billion in less than 2 years.
On October 30, 2025. Meta raised $30 billion in an unprecedented 6-part new issue of Meta corporate bonds ranging from 5 to 40 years in maturity. Given the growth in Meta's spending rate, the company should run through money raised in less than 5 quarters.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are currently 19 secondary Meta USD bonds in circulation totaling $56.2 billion. The systematic trading model has 2 undervalued and 6 long trading indicators. All of the long trade indicators are the recent new supply.
Recent new supply: See above.
Equity Trading Model Indicator: META equity is a long trade indicator its current price.
Alphabet (GOOG, Aa2/AA+ attractive long credit / equity) 3Q ended September 30
Alphabet reported 3Q operating revenue growth of 15.95% YoY. Operating income rose 13% YoY
3Q Operating Metrics
Google Search Revenue rose 15% YoY.
Google Network Revenue fell -3% YoY.
YouTube Ad Revenue rose 15% YoY.
Subscription Revenue rose 21% YoY
9mos operating cash flow rose 30% YoY to $113 billion
9mos free cash flow rose 5% YoY to $48 billion
Alphabet raised its full-year 2025 Capex guidance to a range of $91 billion to $93 billion, an increase from its previous estimate of $85 billion.
Financial Position: Alphabet has $70 billion of net cash on its balance sheet and has returned $47.5 billion to shareholders thus far in 2025.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are currently 10 USD secondary GOOGL bonds in circulation totaling $16 billion. The systematic trading model has 4 undervalued and 3 long trading indicators. All of the long trade indicators are recent new supply.
Recent new supply: On April 28, 2025, Alphabet sold $1.25 bil GOOGL 4 ½ 05/15/35 + 47/10Y the bond now trades -5bp to NIP
Equity Trading Model Indicator: GOOG equity is a long trade indicator below $214.77/shr.
Microsoft (MSFT, Aaa/AAA attractive long credit / equity) 1Q ended September 30
Microsoft reported 1Q operating revenue growth of 18.43% YoY. Operating income rose 24% YoY
1Q Operating Metrics
Productivity and Business Processes Revenue rose 17% YoY.
Intelligence cloud Revenue rose 28% YoY.
Personal Computing Revenue rose 4% YoY.
Operating cash flow rose 32.4% YoY to $45.7 billion
Free cash flow rose 23% YoY to $25.3 billion
Microsoft expects revenue in the range of $79.5 billion to $80.6 billion.
Financial Position: Microsoft paid $11.8 billion to shareholders in 1Q f2026. The company's net cash position now stands @ $58.8 billion. This is the highest cash level in 2 years.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are currently 35 secondary MSFT USD bonds in circulation (21 with market cap of $750mm or more totaling $46.3 billion. The systematic trading model has 1 undervalued and 1 long trading indicator.
Recent new supply: Microsoft last sold new bonds in May 2024.
Equity Trading Model Indicator: MSFT equity is a long trade indicator below $509/shr.
Credit Agricole (ACAFP, A3/A- attractive long credit/long equity) reported 3Q quarter earnings
Revenue rose 5.6% YoY while operating income rose 8.9% YoY
Credit Ag is retaining capital YoY
3Q Deposits rose by 1% QoQ and .6% YoY.
3Q Asset quality was declining QoQ and improving YoY.
3Q Client assets rose 5.9%.
3Q Loans rose by .1% QoQ and rose by 1.5% YoY.
3Q Commercial and Capital Markets Income fell -4.7% YoY
3Q Regional banking income rose 29.8% YoY
3Q Personal banking Income rose 3.2% YoY
Management reaffirmed its 2025 net Income Group Share: More than €6 billion.
Return on Tangible Equity (ROTE): Above 12%.
Cost/Income Ratio (excluding SRF): Below 58%.
CET1 Solvency Target: 11% (with a floor of 250 basis points above SREP requirements).
Dividend Pay-out Policy: 50% in cash.
Financial Position: Tier 1 capital is 17.6% vs 17.6 % at June 30 and 17.4% @ September 30, 2024
Credit Ag is both repurchasing shares and increasing its dividend. Issuer has more cash than debt. Gross yield on ACA FP shares is 7.1%.
Credit Trading Indicator: The Credit Ag secondary USD trading curve has 27 liquid bonds (fixed and floating rate bank notes, Sr. Holdco and subordinated bonds and Perp) totaling $34.6 billion with 3 undervalued indicators and 1 long trade indicators.
Recent new USD supply: September 18, 2025, ACAFP 4.818 09/25/33 +97/7Y currently trading +1bp to NIP
Equity Trading Indicator: ACA FP equity is attractive long trade @ its current price
Societe Generale (SOCGEN, Baa2/BBB attractive long credit/equity) reported 3Q quarter earnings
Revenue fell -2.7% YoY while operating income rose 5.8% YoY
SocGen is retaining capital YoY
3Q Deposits fell by -2% QoQ -4.5% YoY.
3Q Asset quality was declining QoQ and YoY.
3Q Client assets rose 7% YoY
3Q Loans rose by +1% QoQ and rose by 1% YoY.
3Q Retail and Private Banking Income rose +19.7% QoQ and +18.1% YoY
3Q Global Banking income rose +1.6% QoQ and 4.1% YoY
3Q Mobility, International and Financial Services income rose +5.3% QoQ + 19.3% YoY
Management reaffirmed its 2025 net income target of over €12.2 billion confirmed several key financial targets for the full year 2025: Revenue Growth: The bank expects revenue growth of more than 3% for 2025 (excluding asset disposals). Cost/Income Ratio: The target is for the cost/income ratio to be below 65% for the full year 2025. As of the first nine months of 2025, the ratio stood at 63.3%, outperforming this target.
Financial Position: Tier 1 capital is 13.7% vs 13.7 % at June 30 and 13.2% @ September 30, 2024
SocGen paid an interim dividend in the quarter of €1 billion and repurchased shares of €900mm which was financed with internally generated cash. SocGen doesn't initially provide straightforward net interest income reading, which is a bit unnerving what asset quality is falling. Loan book is not growing. SocGen balance sheet is de-levering.
Credit Trading Indicator: The SocGen secondary USD trading curve has 37 liquid bonds (fixed and floating rate bank notes, Sr. Holdco and subordinated bonds and Perp) totaling $28.5 billion with 2 undervalued and 1 long trade indicators.
Recent new USD supply: September 25, 2025, SOCGEN 5.439 10/03/36 +130/10Y currently trading -3bp to NIP
Equity Trading Indicator: GLE FP equity is a long trade indicator below €53/shr
BBVA (BBVASM, Baa1/A- attractive long credit/equity) reported 3Q quarter earnings
Revenue rose 4.4% YoY while operating income rose 2.6% YoY
BBVA is retaining capital YoY
3Q Deposits rose by 5.3% QoQ and 7.7% YoY.
3Q Asset quality was improving QoQ and YoY.
3Q Client assets rose 7.4% YoY.
3Q Loans rose +4.5% QoQ and rose by 16% YoY.
3Q Net Interest rose +18.3% YoY
3Q Fee and Commission Income rose +15.3% YoY
3Q Trading Income fell – 15.3% YoY
Management reaffirmed its target of approximately 20% ROTE for the full year 2025.
Net Interest Income (NII): The bank raised its NII guidance for Spain, now expecting low-single-digit growth. It anticipates continued NII growth in its main markets, including Mexico.
Financial Position: Tier 1 capital is 13.4% vs 13.3 % at June 30 and 12.9% @ September 30, 2024
BBVA has returned €2.8 billion to shareholder via dividend and share – repurchase. The Spanish Bank Holding company is again reducing net debt.
Credit Trading Indicator: The BBVA secondary USD trading curve has 13 liquid bonds (fixed and floating rate bank notes, Sr. Holdco and subordinated bonds and Perp) totaling $11.3 billion with 1 undervalued trade indicator.
Recent new USD supply: February 5, 2025, BBVASM 7 â 02/11/35 (Bancomer Texas) Jr. Sub. Now trades $103.3
Equity Trading Indicator: BBVA SM equity is an attractive long trade indicator @ €16.05/shr.
Disclaimer - This report is not intended as, and does not constitute an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All data, levels, opinions, and representations herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The authors of this report assume no liability for losses or damages arising from the use of this information. Investors should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The information in this report is based on sources believed to be reliable, but no guarantee is made as to its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness.