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Thu, February 19, 2026

Systematic Credit and Equity G-255 Trading Indicators for February 19, 2026

G-255 Specific Credit Sector Indicators February 19 – Long Only Indicators on Page 8

Understanding the G-255 Systematic Trading Model

G-255 is a fully automated, quantitative model that generates long and short signals for bonds and stocks of these major issuers. It uses only each company's own historical data—pricing, balance sheets, earnings momentum, and leverage—for objective, probability-based assessments with zero human input. Back-tested over 35 years, it delivers high tracking accuracy by focusing purely on issuer-specific facts, avoiding peers, macro, or sentiment

Long Opportunities

Credit: Focus on de-leveraging issuers — Single A/BB TMT, Single A Healthcare, UK/US/Canadian Banks, Floating Rate Notes (246 undervalued bonds worth $388.6 bil in value; 143 long trade indicators).

Equity: Focus YoY operating cash flow growth — TMT, Healthcare, Consumer (27 undervalued equities worth $14.61T).

Short Opportunities

· Credit: 1,480 overvalued bonds ($2.635T market value; 888 short indicators)

· Equity: 27 overvalued issuers ($2.336T; 19 short indicators).

The G-255 credit/equity systematic process provides 6,200 hourly trade indicators based on corporate capital

Structure pricing extremes.

G-255 Systematic Portfolio Daily Credit Trading Model Indicators

· Long Indicators: Are de-leveraging issuers with attractive valuations as well new supply of G-255 issuers

· Short Indicators: Are re-leveraging issuers trading within 10% of their 52 week tight credit spread.

· Replace Longs: Swap long positions that have reached their avoid trading level.

· New Supply: The G-255 trading model creates new issue long trade indicators for all new USD sold by G-255 issuers.

· Current Status of Trading Indicators: last week, 2 short trades reached their value trading level, and 2 new short trade indicators were added.

Monitor Trade Position Composition.

· Replace long positions that have reached their avoid trading level.

· Review: The G-255 credit trading model reassess portfolio trade % after weekly fund flow data to ensure alignment with the systematic strategy.

· Look for individual bond indicators to change overnight: Historic trading levels are leading to overnight adjustments to long, short, and avoid indicator levels.

G-255 Specific Bond Trading Indicators February 19

· Closed Positions: On 1/20/26 Royal Bank of Canada (A1/A) RY 4.305 11/03/31 reached its avoid trading level. On 1/21/26 Mitsubishi Finance (A1/A-) MUFG Float 09/12/31 and ATT (Baa2/BBB) T 4.55 11/01/32 both reached their avoid trading levels. On 1/30 Morgan Stanley (Baa1/BBB+) MS 5.498 1/19/38 (subordinated short) reached its avoid trading level. On 2/9 Williams (Baa2/BBB+) WMB 4.65 08/15/32 reached its avoid trading level. On 2/10 Toyota (A1/A+) TOYOTA 4.8 1/5/34 (short) reached its avoid trading level.

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· Enter New Longs: 1/14/26 Bank of New York (Aa3/A+) BK 4.026 01/22/30, 1/27/26 RBC (Baa2) RY 6 ½ 05/24/2086, 2/03/26 Deutsche Bank New York (Baa1/BBB) were added as new issue long trade indicators.

· Enter New Short Trades: On 2/9/26 Oracle (Baa2/BBB) ORCL 5.7 02/04/36 was added as a short trade indicator

Wednesday: G-255 credit trade allocation indicators rose to long 20% floating rate notes/42.% longer dated de-levering G-255 issuers and 37.5% short G-255 re-levering issuers

Current Sample Systematic Basket Credit/Equity trades based on trading strategy February 18

Systematic Long/Short Basket Trade Performance Report (January 4, 2025 – February 18, 2026)

· Total Trades: 195 (full year 2025); 31 (2026 YTD)

· Long Indicators (2025): 136 out of 150 tightened by an average of -9.2 bp. (2026): 8 out of 18 tightened by an average of -6.53 bp.

· Short Indicators (2025): 36 out of 45 widened by an average of +5.85 bp. (2026): 4 out of 13 widened +6.27 bp.

· Remaining Longs (2025): 14 positions tightened by -1.53 bp. (2026): 11 positions widened by +.17 bp.

· Remaining Shorts (2025): 9 positions tightened by -19.23 bp. (2026): 10 positions tightened by -.48 bp.

· Average Spread Movement (2025): ±6.73 bp in the recommended direction. (2026): ±2.32 bp.

· Success Rate (2025): 88.2% of indicators reached avoid-trading levels (slightly below historic norms).

· Average Trade Holding Period (2025): 23.7 days (above average).

Systematic Portfolio Daily Equity Trading Model

· Long Indicators: Target G-255 issuers with positive year-on-year cash flow, trading more than 7.5% below their moving averages. Focus on issuers with the largest capital returns to shareholders.

· Short Indicators: Target G-255 issuers with negative year-on-year cash flow and returns to shareholders, trading more than 7.5% above their historic moving averages. Focus on issuers with the largest declines in operating cash flow.

· Trading levels for all 242 equities determine the number of positions: G-255 is not a "stock picking" tool—it is a stochastic measurement system based on current operating metrics and returns to shareholders.

· Current Status of Trading Indicators: Last week, one short trade and 2 long trades were added, while 2 long indicators reached their avoid trading levels.

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G-255 Specific Equity Trading Indicators February 18

· Open Long Positions: since January 5, the G-255 has added and (subtracted) 30 issuers from the most attractive long indicators list. In February: 2/4/26, Abbott Labs (ABT), 2/5/26, Prudential Financial (PRU), NVIDIA (NVDA) 2/08/26 Amazon (AMZN), 2/9/26 Marsh & McLennan (MRSH), 2/11/26 IBM (IBM) were added.

· Closed Long Positions: Since January 20, 10 the G-255 Highest rated Long Trade Indicators have reached their avoid trading levels. In February Marathon Pete (MPC), Mondelez (MDLZ) on 2/3/26. Kroger (KR) on 2/5/26, NVIDIA (NVDA) on 2/6/26. Charter Communications (CHTR), Diageo (DGE LN) 2/11/26 . Softbank (9984 JP) and Kraft Heinz (KHC) all reached their fair value trading level. AIG US Equity reached its fair value trading level 2/17/26.

· Open Short Positions: G-255 Highest short indicators added UAL US equity 1/20/26, GM US equity and UPS US on 1/27/26, Starbucks (SBUX) on 1/28/26 and Dow (DOW) on February 6, BP (BP LN) and Total Energies (TTE FP) added to the highest rated short trade indicator list

· Close Short Positions: On January 30 Nordea Bank NDA SS Equity was changed to a G-255 long trade indicator post 4Q earnings.

Equity Trade Definitions:

· A G-255 "Highest rated" equity long must be trading -7.5% relative to its historic moving average.

· A G-255 "Highest rated" equity short must be trading +7.5% relative to its historic moving average.

Overall, the 31 highest-rated G-255 long positions have returned 5.10% in January and +-.35% in February

Overall, the 7 highest-rated G-255 short positions have returned -1.85% in January and +.79% in February

G-255 Trade Sizes and Systematic Trade Process for Corporate bonds and Equities

· G-255 represents the world's 255 largest issuers of corporate securities and have a minimum equivalent of $15 billion of tradable liquid debt market capital in all global currencies.

· At present there are 6,055 G-255 USD bonds in circulation.

· There are 242 publicly listed equities for the G-255 debt issuers that trade in 8 currencies.

· The total equity market capital of the 242 stocks is just over $47 trillion or $182 billion per issuer. That is 60% larger equity capital per constituent than the S&P 500.

· 80 of the 242 publicly traded equities for the G-255 are domiciled outside of the United States.

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G-255 Credit Indicators USD Trading Process and Size – Overall Strategy Is Designed To Trade $3 Trillion of Assets

· The G-255 trading process is designed for systematic trading on electronic platforms for equities and bonds.

· The system accommodates the largest institutional trade sizes, dependent on user resources and trading relationships (all G-255 USD corporate bonds trade OTC via over 80 dealers and all 5 major U.S. electronic bond trading firms).

G-255 Credit Indicators and USD Liquidity - 80% of All Daily TRACE Trades

The G-255 credit trading indicators cover 80% of daily NASD TRACE trades (95% of USD investment-grade and 48% of USD non-investment-grade).

G-255 Trade Indicators are created daily for all 6,250 debt and equity securities.

· Indicator Calibration: The stochastic credit trading model uses earnings data to recalibrate balance sheet leverage and valuation indicators, then evaluates spread-to-curve positioning, earnings momentum, and debt ratios against each issuer's historical trading patterns.

· Bond-Level Granularity: G-255 USD issuers hold an average of 27 USD bonds outstanding (~$27.5 billion USD debt cap per issuer). The model analyzes historical relative value across the capital structure, generating indicators for over/undervalued bonds.

· Equity-Credit Linkage: For issuers with both equity and bonds, equity signals (driven by cash flow and shareholder returns) directly influence credit spreads. The framework integrates these to produce synchronized long/short signals based on liquidity thresholds.

Equity and Credit Trading and Sector Indicators and Wednesday Trading

Wednesday, February 18, 2026, Trading volumes in all markets returned to normal as did US G-255 new supply. We saw a small bounce in technology G-255 equities. G-255 technology credit names did not experience significant credit spread tightening on Wednesday.

Microsoft remains the top G-255 equity long indicator with a $482 fair value level. Meta (Aa3/AA-) META 4.65 08/15/62 and META 5 3/4 05/15/63 are the top G-255 long credit indicators with -12 bp minimum of credit tightening according to the systematic trading model.

We had more earnings without cashflow, or balance sheet information provided by G-255 issuers. On Wednesday it was Orange (ORAFP Baa1/BBB+) not providing either cash flow or balance sheet information while Glencore did report second half data but did not provide interim cash flow information.

And again, while we continue to see headlines focused on "AI displacement" across global risk (equity and corporate debt) markets, the markets were more focused Wednesday on the minutes of last month's FOMC meeting. "Several participants indicated that they would have supported a two-sided description of the committee's future interest-rate decisions, reflecting the possibility that upward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate could be appropriate if inflation remains at above-target levels." Then, "Most participants, however, cautioned that progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective might be slower and more uneven than generally expected and judged that the risk of inflation running persistently above the Committee's objective was meaningful."

So, to simplify. There has been very little change year over year in nameplate or core inflation. At the same time the US Federal Reserve's overnight lending rate has come down (-75bp from prior peaks).

G-255 equities are now less overvalued than last Wednesday but remain near the highest levels since March 2020. Credit spreads remain wider month over month despite positive corporate bond ETF inflows this week and >$4 billion in mutual fund cash flows last week.

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G-255 Systematic Model Update: February 18 Trading and This Week's Earnings Reports

G-255 Credit Market Valuation and New G – 255 Supply February 18, 2026

On a Risk/Reward basis, High Yield bonds have far outperformed Investment Grade in 2025 and 2026

· US Credit Spreads reached their tightest point of 2025, February 21, 2025, and widest April 10, 2025.

· US Credit Spreads reached their tightest point of 2024, November 12, 2024, and widest August 2, 2024.

The G-255 credit trading total short and long indicators peaked on the tightest and widest dates described above.

February New G-255 Supply Credit Indicators

7 more G-255 issuers came to market on Wednesday, all but 1 issuer was a G-255 Electric Utility. 7 issuers sold 14 bonds total $9.818 billion. The Centerpoint (CNP Aaa/AAA) rate relief bonds were seen by the G-255 credit trading model as the most attractive Wednesday offering.

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Investments in US-listed fixed income exchange-traded funds declined 14% in the past week for the 45th straight week of inflows. Broad bond-market ETFs led the inflows. Government bond ETFs had the biggest change from the previous week. Corporate Bond ETF inflows rose +14% week over week to $3.48 billion

Net inflows to ETFs totaled $12.2b in the week ended Feb. 17, 2026, including the effect of leveraged funds, compared with $14.1b in the week ended February 10, 2026.

Broad bond-market ETFs dropped by $109.2m to $5.43b

Government bond ETFs dropped by $1.84b to $1.58b

Corporate bond ETF inflows rose to $3,480mm from $3,085mm last week.

The G-255 systematic model provides trade indicators only for the 255 largest corporate debt issuers. It generates long indicators for approximately 12% of new issues (representing roughly 67% of total annual USD new debt capital). Please see the weekly G-255 new supply report for details and results from 2025 and 2026.

G-255 Credit and Equity Market Indicators February 19

· Attractive Long Credit Indicators: 147 (-5 from Wednesday) and +44 % above the 200-day moving average of all long indicators.

· Attractive Long Credit Market Cap accounts for: 60% of all undervalued Systematic credit capital.

· Attractive Short Credit Indicators 888 (+91 from Wednesday and +39% above the 200-day moving average of all model short trade indicators). Short Credit Market Cap comprises 58% of all overvalued Systematic credit capital.

G-255 Equity Trade Indicators and US Equity Correlation to Overall US Credit Spreads

G-255 credit spreads have correlated directionally with US equity index movement for 25 of the first 32 trading days of 2026. Credit spreads and US equities were unchanged Wednesday

US equities are -.75% over the past month; US credit spreads are now wider as well.

Systematic Equity Trading Indicators February 18

Attractive Long G-255 Equity Trade Indicators: 27 (including both undervalued and equities priced at extreme discount) -4 from Wednesday and -67% below the 200-day moving average of all long-trade indicators.

Short Equity Trade Indicators 19, (+2 Wednesday) and +75% above the 200-day moving average of all model short trade indicators).

G-255 Key Differentiator

G-255 equities represent 84% of the world's daily large-cap trading volume, while its credit coverage includes ~85% of daily TRACE-reported USD corporate bond trades (95% IG, 48% HY). The model delivers back-tested tracking accuracy of 97.5% by isolating each issuer against its own historic norms—enabling precise detection of extreme valuation levels that broader benchmarks often miss.

Sales at stores open at least a year, or same-store sales rose 7.2% in the Feb. 14 week compared to a year earlier, Johnson Redbook says. Month-to-date sales through Feb. 14 rose 6.8%

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G-255 Credit and Sector Indicators for "Long Only" trading strategies February 19

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Disclaimer - This report is not intended as, and does not constitute an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All data, levels, opinions, and representations herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The authors of this report assume no liability for losses or damages arising from the use of this information. Investors should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The information in this report is based on sources believed to be reliable, but no guarantee is made as to its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness.