TMT Earnings Digest with G-255 Credit & Equity Indicators November 11, 2025
Summary:
Recent TMT results
Not every G-255 issuer generates significant cash flow and rewards shareholders. With the exception of Visa (V) the six other TMT issuers are either selling assets to trim balance sheet or buying assets to grow their revenue base.
We have written frequently that unit volume growth in terms of broadband or wireless subscribers is roughly 1% globally. The only true demand in the communications space is for spectrum and ATT SpaceX are buyers,
Softbank sold its NVDA stake to fund newer investment in AI.
The only change in this group of reports its BT/A, is now a short according to the systematic trading model.
Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings (CCO, B2/B long credit/ equity)
Q3 ended September 30 Clear Channel reported Q3 operating revenue of $480 million (+8.1% YoY). Operating earnings were $62 million (+4.8% YoY).
3Q Operating Metrics:
Americas Revenue: $290 million (+1.7% YoY)
Europe Revenue: $190 million (+2.6% YoY)
Operating Cash Flow: $102 million (+3.0% YoY)
Free Cash Flow: $45 million (+5.2% YoY)
Management Guidance: Reaffirmed full-year revenue guidance of $1.9–$2.0 billion and adjusted EBITDA margin of 18–20%.
Financial Position: Net debt was $5.2 billion in Q3 2025 (YoY: -2.3%).
Capital Returns: No dividends or share repurchases reported.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: CCO has 5 secondary USD bonds totaling $4.9 billion. 1 CCO bond has one undervalued trade indicator.
Recent USD Supply: July 21, 2025, CCO 7 â 02/15/31 $1.15 billion now trades +$3.5 to NIP
Equity Trading Model Indicator: CCO equity is a long trade indicator below $1,37 per share.
EchoStar Corp (SATS, Caa1/B speculative long credit/equity)
Q3 ended September 30. EchoStar reported Q3 operating revenue of $3.61 billion (-7.1% YoY). Operating earnings a loss of $16.6 bill.
3Q Operating Metrics:
Pay TV Revenue: $2.34 billion (-10.6% YoY)
Wireless Services Revenue: $938 million (+4.5% YoY)
Operating Cash Flow: $110 million (+5.5% YoY)
Free Cash Flow: $60 million (+7.1% YoY)
Management Guidance: Reaffirmed sales of wireless spectrum to ATT and SpaceX to reduce debt.
Financial Position: Net debt was $23.3 billion in Q3 2025 (YoY: -1.8%).
Capital Returns: No dividends or share repurchases reported.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: SATS/DISH have 12 secondary USD bonds totaling $16.1 billion. SATS/DISH have long trade indicators.
Recent USD Supply: EchoStar last sold USD in October 2024No recent USD issuance reported.
Equity Trading Model Indicator: SATS equity is a neutral trade indicator at current price.
Warner Bros Discovery (WBD, Ba1/BB+ attractive long credit/ equity)
Q3 ended September WBD reported Q3 operating revenue of $9.05 billion (–6% YoY). Operating earnings were –$148 million (vs. +$135 million YoY).
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3Q Operating Metrics:
Streaming Subscribers: 128 million (+2.3 million QoQ)
Linear Networks Revenue: $3.88 billion (–22% YoY)
Streaming Revenue: $2.63 billion (flat YoY)
Studios Revenue: $3.3 billion (+23% YoY)
9Mos Operating Cash Flow: $2.5 bill (-3% YoY)
9Mos Free Cash Flow: $1.7 bill (includes ~$500 million in separation-related costs -5% YoY
Management reaffirmed 2025 EBITDA targets: $3 billion (Studios), $1.3 billion (Streaming).
Financial Position: Net debt was $29.3 billion in Q3 2025 (–$.2 billion QoQ).
3QCapital Returns: No dividends or share repurchases reported.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: WBD has 22 secondary USD bonds totaling $17 billion. 4 WBD bonds have long trade indicators.
Recent USD Supply: Warner has not issued bonds since 2023.
Equity Trading Model Indicator: WBD equity is a long trade indicator below $15.44/shr.
Visa Inc (V, Aa3/AA- attractive short credit/long equity)
Q3 ended September 30. Visa reported Q4 operating revenue of $10.742 billion (+11.6% YoY). Operating earnings were $6.2 billion (-3% YoY).
3Q Operating Metrics:
Payments Volume: $3.3 trillion (+9.5% YoY)
Cross-border Volume: $0.5 trillion (+22.1% YoY)
Processed Transactions: 65.2 billion (+10.8% YoY)
Operating Cash Flow: $5.1 billion (+12.3% YoY)
Free Cash Flow: $4.6 billion (+13.7% YoY)
Management reaffirmed full-year net revenue growth of low double digits and operating margin above 65%.
Financial Position: Net debt was $6.1 billion in Q4 2025 (YoY: +2.9%).
Capital Returns: Visa returned $23 billion to shareholders +10% YoY.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: Visa has 10 secondary USD bonds totaling $17 billion. 5 V bonds have overvalued trade indicators.
Recent USD Supply: Visa has not sold USD debt since 2020.
Equity Trading Model Indicator: V equity is a long trade indicator below $345.64/shr.
British Telecom PLC (BT/A, Baa2/BBB attractive short credit/ equity)
1H ended September 30
BT reported Q3 operating revenue of £4.9 billion (-2.7% YoY). Operating earnings were £826mm (-11% YoY).
1H Operating Metrics:
Consumer Revenue: £2.1 billion (-3% YoY)
Enterprise Revenue: £1.4 billion (-1.4% YoY)
Global Revenue: £1.2 billion (-9% YoY)
Openreach Revenue: £3.1 billion (+0% YoY)
Operating Cash Flow: £2.8 billion (-6% YoY)
Free Cash Flow: £100mm (-78% YoY)
Management reaffirmed full-year EBITDA guidance of £7.9–£8.1 billion and capex of £4.8–£5.0 billion.
Financial Position: Net debt was £17.5 billion in 1H 2026 (YoY: +7%).
Capital Returns: BT returned £924mm to shareholders YTD and used balance sheet to finance the payout. dividends.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: BT has 6 secondary USD bonds totaling $6 billion. 2 BT bonds have overvalued trade indicators.
Recent USD Supply: BT has not sold USD bonds in 5 years.
Equity Trading Model Indicator: BT/A equity is a short trade indicator above GBp 198/shr.
Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corp (NTT, A3/A)
- attractive short credit/long equity) Q2 ended September 30
NTT reported Q2 operating revenue (+4.75% YoY). Operating earnings were (+8.45% YoY).
3Q Operating Metrics:
Smart Life Revenue: ¥330.9 billion (+23% YoY)
Mobile ARPU: ¥1,980 (–5.1% YoY)
Operating Cash Flow: ¥310 billion (+12.5% YoY)
Free Cash Flow: ¥275 billion (+14.3% YoY)
Management reaffirmed long-term customer base expansion and cost control strategy.
Financial Position: Net debt was ¥10.1 trillion in Q2 2025 (YoY: +11.5%).
Capital Returns: Returned ¥261 billion to shareholders YTD roughly flat YoY.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: NTT has 14 secondary USD bonds totaling $17.8 billion. 2 NTT bonds have overvalued trade indicators. 4 NTT bonds have short trade indicators.
Recent USD Supply: July 9, 2025, NTT 5.502 07/16/35 $2.5 billion +117/10Y trades -24bp to NIP
Equity Trading Model Indicator: NTT equity is a long trade indicator at its current price.
SoftBank Group Corp (SFTBK, BB+ long credit/long equity)
Q2 ended September 30. SoftBank reported Q2 operating revenue that rose (+7.9% YoY). Operating earnings before investment gains rose (+7.3% YoY).
2Q Operating Metrics:
• Telecom Segment: ¥1,260 billion (+4.2% YoY)
• Arm Holdings (Semiconductors): ¥920 billion (+12.5% YoY)
• Vision Fund & Investment Segment: ¥680 billion (+9.8% YoY)
• PayPay & Fintech Services: ¥320 billion (+15.3% YoY)
• Operating Cash Flow: ¥390.2 billion (+11.5% YoY)
• Free Cash Flow: ¥345.6 billion (+13.2% YoY)
Management Guidance: Reaffirmed AI-centric investment strategy including the $500B Stargate initiative and Crystal Intelligence JV with OpenAI. Sold its entire stake in Nvidia for about $5.8 billion in October 2025 to generate cash for new AI investments.
Financial Position: Net debt was ¥12.2 trillion in Q2 2025 (YoY: -9.9%).
Capital Returns: Returned ¥343 billion to shareholders YTD including a 48% YoY decline.
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Credit Trading Model Indicator: SoftBank has 14 secondary USD bonds totaling $12.65 billion. 2 SoftBank bonds have long trade indicators.
Recent USD Supply: October 22, 2025, SOFTBK 8 ¼ 10/29/65 (subordinated) $1.1billion and now trades -$1.75 to NIP.
Equity Trading Model Indicator: SFTBY equity is a long trade indicator below $¥16,185.91.
Disclaimer - This report is not intended as, and does not constitute an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All data, levels, opinions, and representations herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The authors of this report assume no liability for losses or damages arising from the use of this information. Investors should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The information in this report is based on sources believed to be reliable, but no guarantee is made as to its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness.