G-255 US Issuers Reporting Q3 Results with Trade Indicators for October 17, 2025
CSX Corp (CSX, A3/BBB+ attractive short credit and equity) 3Q ended September 30
CSX reported operating revenue decline of -1% YoY in their third quarter. Operating income fell -20% YoY
3Q Operating Metrics
3Q Total merchandise units shipped fell -1% YoY led by chemicals and minerals
3Q Revenue Per Unit fell -2% YoY led by coal
3Q Total Revenue / Ton Mile rose 3% YoY
3Q Fuel costs were flat YoY.
9 mos operating cashflow fell -19.5% to $3.2 bil
9 mos cash usage was $930mm v $100mm of net free cashflow in the first 9 mos of 2024.
Company only guided that YoY volumes would be positive for 2025 (they already are).
Financial Position: In the quarter, CSX net debt fell by $200mm and rose by $1.7 billion YoY to $18.5 billion. The company reduced its return of capital to shareholders by $310 mm YoY in 3Q 2025 to $354mm.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are currently 23 secondary USD CSX bonds in circulation totaling $15.5 billion of market capital. 1 has an overvalued indicator and 7 have short trade indicators.
Recent CSX new supply: March 6, 2025 CSX 5.05 06/15/35 +80/10Y trades -20bp to NIP
Equity Trading Model Indicator: CSX equity is a short trade at its current price.
Truist Financial Corp (TFC Baa1/A- attractive short credit/attractive long equity) reported 3Q earnings.
Revenue rose 2% YoY while operating earnings rose 2% YoY
Truist retaining capital and
3Q Deposits fell by -3% QoQ and rose 4% YoY.
3Q Asset quality declined QoQ and is flat YoY.
3Q Client assets rose +3% in the quarter and 5% YoY.
3Q Loan growth was +2% QoQ and 1.6% YoY.
3Q Net interest income rose +1.2% QoQ and 0.6% YoY
3Q Non Interest Income rose +11.3% QoQ and 5.1% YoY
2025 guidance was re-affirmed
Financial Position: Tier 1 capital is 11 % vs 11 % at June 30 and 11.9% @ September 30, 2024. Truist balance sheet did not grow in 3Q 2025. TFC returned $1.15 billion to shareholders in 3Q 2025 while balance sheet leverage risk rose by $15.5 billion YOY and $16.6 bil QoQ.
Credit Trading Indicator: The Truist secondary trading USD curve has 36 liquid bonds (floating and fixed rate bank notes and Senior Holdco and Subordinated bonds and Perp) totaling $43.2 billion with 10 overvalued and 8 short trade indicators.
Recent new supply: 7/21/25 TFC 4.42 07/24/28 Sr. Banknote +57 bp/2Y T 3 â 06/30/30 trades -1bp to NIP
Equity Trading Indicator: TFC equity is attractive long at its current trading level
Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB Baa1/BBB+ attractive long credit and equity) reported 3Q quarter earnings
Revenue rose 8% YoY while operating income rose 14% YoY
FITB is retaining capital YoY
3Q Deposits rose 1% QoQ and fell -1% YoY.
3Q Asset quality improved QoQ and YoY.
3Q Loans fell were rose 1% QoQ and 6% YoY.
3Q Net interest income rose 2% QoQ and 7% YoY
3Q Non interest income rose 4% QoQ and 10% YoY
3Q Investment Services income fell -7% QoQ and rose 26% YoY
Financial Position: Tier 1 capital is 10.55% vs 10.58 % at June 30 and 10.73% @ September 30, 2024
Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) returned $565 mm of dividends and share repurchases in 3Q 2025 and has just $400 mm of net debt on its balance sheet.
Credit Trading Indicator: The FITB secondary USD trading curve has 18 liquid bonds (fixed and floating rate bank notes, Sr. Holdco and subordinated bonds and Perp) totaling $22 billion with 1 long trade indicator at current levels.
Recent new supply: FITB has not sold bonds since January 2025.
Equity Trading Indicator: FITB equity is an attractive long trade at its current price.
Huntington Bancshares Inc/OH (HBAN , Baa1/BBB+ attractive long both credit and equity) reported 3Q quarter earnings
Revenue rose 11% YoY while operating income rose 20% YoY
• HBAN is retaining capital YoY
• 3Q Deposits rose +1% QoQ and +6% YoY.
• 3Q Asset quality improved QoQ and YoY.
• 3Q Loan growth rose 2% QoQ and 9% YoY.
• 3Q Net interest income rose 3% QoQ and rose 11% YoY
• 3Q Non – interest income rose 32% QoQ and 20% YoY
Company raised 2025 For average loans and net interest income
Financial Position: Tier 1 capital is 10.6% vs 10.5 % at June 30 and 10.4% @ September 30, 2024
Huntington Bank returned $227 mm of dividends in 3Q 2025 and is not using balance sheet to return capital to shareholders. Net debt on the HBAN balance sheet fell by -$2 bill QoQ but remains +$2.4 billion YoY
Credit Trading Indicator: Huntington Bank secondary USD trading curve has 12 liquid bonds totaling $10.1 billion with 3 overvalued and 2 short trade indicators.
Recent new supply: September 11, 2025 HBAN 6 ¼ PERP +265.30bp vs T 3 â 08/31/30 trades +22bp to NIP.
Equity Trading Indicator: HBAN equity is an attractive long at its current price
American Express Co (AXP A2/A- attractive long credit/attractive long equity) reported 3Q earnings.
Revenue rose 11% YoY while operating earnings rose 19% YoY
American Express is retaining capital and
3Q Deposits rose .5% QoQ and 11% YoY.
3Q Asset quality is improving QoQ and YoY.
3Q Total billed business rose 8% YoY.
3Q Loan growth rose 2% QoQ and 7% YoY.
3Q Net interest income rose 7% QoQ and 8% YoY
3Q Credit card provisions fell -6% QoQ and -5% YoY
Company raised 2025 revenue and earnings guidance
Financial Position: Tier 1 capital is 10.5 % vs 10.6 % at June 30 and 10.7% @ September 30, 2024. While USB net was flat QoQ, it remains $6 billion higher YoY. Total marketable debt however fell in both the quarter and YoY American Express (AXP) has returned $6.2 billion to shareholders in 2025 via share repurchase and dividends while net debt has dropped by $4 billion YoY. American Express is growing their equity dividend by over 12% per year.
Credit Trading Indicator: The American Express (AXP) secondary trading USD curve has 39 liquid bonds (floating and fixed rate bank notes and Senior Holdco and Subordinated bonds and Perp) totaling $44 billion with 1 long trade indicator which has a maturity inside of 2 years.
Recent new supply: 7/21/25 AXP 4.918 07/20/33 +80 vs 7Y trades -10bp to NIP
Equity Trading Indicator: AXP equity is attractive below $315.17 / shr
State Street Corp (STT, Aa3/A attractive long credit and equity) reported 3Q quarter earnings
Revenue rose 9% YoY while operating income rose 19% YoY
State Street is retaining capital YoY
3Q Deposits fell -1.1% QoQ and rose +10% YoY.
2Q Asset quality rose QoQ and YoY.
3Q Client assets rose 6% QoQ and 15% YoY.
3Q Net interest income fell -2% QoQ and -1% YoY.
3Q Servicing feed rose rose 4% QoQ and 7% YoY
3Q Management fees rose 9% QoQ and 16% YoY
Financial Position: CET 1 capital is 11.3% v 10.7% at June 30 and 11.6% as of September 30, 2025
State Street returned $637mm to shareholders in dividend and share repurchases in 3Q 2025 and has net cash on its balance sheet.
Credit Trading Indicator: The State Street Corp (STT) secondary USD trading curve has 32 liquid bonds (fixed and floating rate bank notes, Sr. Holdco and subordinated bonds and Perp) totaling $24.1 billion with 1 undervalued or long trade indicators.
Recent new supply: April 22, 2025 STT 4.834 04/24/30 +85/10Y and trade -42bp to NIP
Equity Trading Indicator: STT equity is an attractive long trade below $101/shr
Ally Financial Inc (ALLY , Baa3/BBB- attractive long both credit and equity) reported 3Q quarter earnings
Revenue rose 1.4% YoY while operating income rose 95% YoY
ALLY is retaining capital YoY
3Q Deposits fell -.9% QoQ and are flat YoY.
3Q Asset quality is improving QoQ and YoY.
3Q Loan growth rose 1% QoQ and was flat YoY.
3Q Net interest income rose 22% QoQ and 99% YoY
Financial Position: Tier 1 capital is 10.1% vs 9.9 % at June 30 and 9.2% @ September 30, 2024
Company did not use balance sheet to repatriate cash to shareholders in 3Q 2025. ALL returned $90 mm of capital through common dividends in 3Q 2025. The dividend is growing 10% per year
Net debt on the Ally Financial balance sheet is now flat QoQ and YoY
Credit Trading Indicator: The ALLY secondary USD trading curve has 13 liquid bonds (fixed and floating rate bank notes, Sr. Holdco and subordinated bonds and Perp) totaling $10.3 billion with 2 undervalued and 4 attractive long trades.
Recent new supply: July ALLY 5.548 07/31/33 +137/7Y currently trading +30bp to NIP
Equity Trading Indicator: Ally equity is an attractive long at its current price
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