Reports Library
Wed, October 22, 2025

Texas Instruments, Capital one, Heineken, DNB, Svenska Handelsbanken, Barclays, UniCredit, ATT, Thermo Fisher Report Q3 Results and G-255 Trade Indicators for October 22, 2025

Texas Instruments (TXN, Aa3/A+ attractive short credit and equity) reports 3Q results

TXN 3Q 2025 revenue growth of 14% YoY and operating earnings rose 7% YoY

3Q Operating Metrics

• Analog revenue rose 16% YoY

• Analog operating profit rose 13% YoY

  • Processing revenue rose 9% YoY

  • Processing operating profit fell – 1% YoY

• Operating cash flow rose 10% YoY

• Free cash flow rose 65% YoY.

• Management 4Q revenue and operating earnings guidance was slightly lower.

Financial Position:

  • Texas Instruments returned $1.356 bil to shareholders in 3Q 2025 and $5.193 bil over the past 4 quarters. $3.8 billion of the $5.2 billion returned to shareholders over the past 12 months has come via TXN balance sheet re-levering.

  • Total Debt on the TXN balance sheet is just over $14 billion through 3Q 2025.

Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are 18 TXN secondary USD bonds in circulation ($13.45 billion of overall market capital) and three bonds carry overvalued systematic credit trading indicators. There are no short trade TXN indicators as of last night.

Recent new TXN supply: May 20, 2025 TXN 5.1 05/23/35 +63/10Y now trades -10bp to NIP.

Equity Indicator: TXN equity is a long trade below $171 per share.

Capital One (COF Baa1/BBB+ attractive long both credit and equity) reported 3Q quarter earnings

Revenue rose 23% YoY while pre-provision income rose 29% YoY

  • Capital One is retaining capital YoY

  • Net interest margin rose 74bp to 8.36%

  • 3Q Deposits rose 13% QoQ and 33% YoY.

  • 3Q Asset quality declined QoQ and improved YoY.

  • 3Q Auto loan quality improved 20bp YoY.

  • 3Q Loan growth rose 1% QoQ and 38% YoY.

  • 3Q Net interest income rose 24% QoQ and 54% YoY

  • 3Q Non – interest income rose 18% QoQ and 52% YoY

Financial Position: Tier 1 capital is 14.4% vs 14.0 % at June 30 and 13.6% @ September 30, 2024

Company did not use balance to repatriate cash to shareholders in 3Q 2025. COF returned $1.456 billion of capital through common dividends and share repurchases Capital One also announced a $14 billion share repurchase program

Net cash on the COF balance sheet fell by $3 bil QoQ to $3.4 billion

Credit Trading Indicator: The Capital One secondary USD trading curve has 32 liquid bonds (fixed and floating rate bank notes, Sr. Holdco and subordinated bonds and Perp) totaling $36.7 billion with 1 undervalued and 1 attractive long trade.

Recent new supply: September 9, 2025 COF 5.197 09/11/36 ( 11nc10) +115/10Y currently trading +10bp to NIP

Equity Trading Indicator: COF equity is an attractive long at its current price

Heineken (HEIANA, A3/BBB+, attractive short Credit/Equity) Reported 3Q revenue

Summary: Heineken reported "organic" revenue decline of -.3% YoY and while pricing rose 3% YoY The company only reports operating earnings twice per year.

3Q Operating Metrics

  • Beer volume fell -4.3% in the quarter and -2.3% YTD

  • Premium Beer volume fell -2.2% in the quarter and rose 0.4% YTD

  • Heineken volume fell -0.6% in the quarter and rose 0.4% YTD

  • Asia Pacific volume was -1% lower with pricing +8%

Financial Position:

  • The company reports balance sheet in January and July of each year. Net debt is flat YoY and rose by €600mm in the first 6 months of 2025 the €15.8 billion. The company has repurchase €500mm of equity so far in 2025.

Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are currently 3 liquid secondary USD HEIANA bonds totalling $2.76 billion . No trading indicators are overvalued or short.

Recent new USD Heineken supply: was in 2017.

Equity Indicator: HEIA NA equity is a short trade at €78.5 / shr.

Disclaimer - This report is not intended as, and does not constitute an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All data, levels, opinions, and representations herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The authors of this report assume no liability for losses or damages arising from the use of this information. Investors should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The information in this report is based on sources believed to be reliable, but no guarantee is made as to its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness.