United Airlines, Nordea Bank, Bank of NY Mellon, Marsh & McLennan, US Bancorp, Charles Schwab, and KeyCorp all Report Q3 Results with G-255 Trading Indicators October 16, 2025
United Airlines (UAL, Ba1/BBB- attractive short credit and equity) 3Q ended September 30
United reported operating revenue growth of 2.4% YoY in their third quarter. Operating income fell -10% YoY
3Q Operating Metrics
3Q unit revenue fell -4.3% YoY
3Q Domestic revenue rose 3.1% YoY
3Q International revenue rose .2% YoY
3Q Cost / Average Seat Mile (after fuel) fell -2.8% YoY
3Q Fuel costs were flat YoY.
3Q Operating cash flow fell by -19% to $1.2 bill
3Q Free cash flow turned slightly negative in the quarter.
Company raised 4Q earnings guidance.
Financial Position: In the quarter, UAL net debt rose by $635mm and $2.4 billion YoY to $12 billion. The company does not pay a dividend or repurchase equity.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are currently 13 secondary USD United Airlines (UAL) bonds in circulation totaling $14.2 billion of market capital. None have overvalued trading indicators.
The last time UAL sold debt was 2023
Equity Trading Model Indicator: UAL equity is a short trade above $113 per share.
Norea Bank (NDAFH A3/A- attractive short credit/attractive long equity) reported 3Q earnings.
Revenue fell -3% YoY while operating earnings fell -3% YoY
Nordea is retaining capital and
3Q Deposits fell slightly QoQ and rose 4% YoY.
3Q Asset quality is improving slightly QoQ and YoY.
3Q Client assets rose +3% in the quarter and 5% YoY.
3Q Loan growth was +2% QoQ and 7% YoY.
3Q Net interest income fell -1% QoQ and -6% YoY
3Q Sales and trading rose +5% QoQ and 2% YoY
2025 guidance was re-affirmed @ 15% ROE
Financial Position: Tier 1 capital is 15.9 % vs 15.8 % at June 30 and 15.8% @ September 30, 2024. Nordea grew its securities trading book by 10% QoQ and 11% YoY. Nordea returned €3.85 billion to shareholders in the first 9 most of 2025 while balance sheet leverage risk rose by €25 billion YOY and €7.48 bil QoQ.
Credit Trading Indicator: The NDAFH secondary trading USD curve has 13 liquid bonds (floating and fixed rate bank notes and Senior Holdco and Subordinated bonds and Perp) totaling $9.6 billion with 1 overvalued and 1 short trade indicator.
Recent new supply: 9/3/25 NDAFH 6 ¾ PERP (+253 bp vs T 3 â 06/30/30 trades -16bp to NIP
Equity Trading Indicator: Nordea (NDASS) equity is a short at its current trading level SEK 162/shr
Bank of New York, Mellon (BK, A1/A attractive long credit and equity) reported 3Q quarter earnings
Revenue rose 11% YoY while operating income rose 21% YoY
BK is retaining capital YoY
3Q Deposits fell -9% QoQ and rose +6% YoY.
3Q Asset quality improved QoQ and YoY.
3Q Client assets rose 3% QoQ and 5% YoY.
3Q Loan growth rose 2% QoQ and 5% YoY.
3Q Net interest income rose 3% QoQ and rose 18% YoY
3Q Market and Bus Service income rose 4% QoQ and 24% YoY
3Q Investment Services income fell -7% QoQ and rose 26% YoY
Financial Position: Tier 1 capital is 11.7% vs 11.5 % at June 30 and 11.9% @ September 30, 2024
Bank of New York (BK) returned $1.2 billion of dividends and share repurchases in 3Q 2025 and has net cash on its balance sheet.
Credit Trading Indicator: The BK secondary USD trading curve has 39 liquid bonds (fixed and floating rate bank notes, Sr. Holdco and subordinated bonds and Perp) totaling $28 billion with 1 long trade indicator at current levels.
Recent new supply: September 3, 2025 BK 5.95 PERP +227/10Y currently trading -16bp to NIP
Equity Trading Indicator: BK equity is an attractive long trade below $99.5
Marsh & McLennan (PNC , A3/A- attractive long both credit and equity) reported 3Q quarter earnings
Revenue rose 4% YoY while operating income rose 6% YoY
3Q Operating Metrics
3Q Consulting revenue rose 5% YoY.
3Q Risk and Insurance revenue rose 4% YoY.
Financial Position: Net debt on the MMC balance sheet has leveled off @$17.2 billion.
3Q Share repurchase was $400mm and dividends, which are growing 13% per year were $430mm. Company is not using balance sheet to return capital to shareholders.
Credit Trading Indicator: The Marsh & McLennan secondary USD trading curve has 19 liquid bonds totaling $14 billion with 5 overvalued and 1 short trade indicator.
Recent new supply: MMC has not sold debt since October 2024.
Equity Trading Indicator: MMC equity is an attractive long at its current price
US Bancorp (USB A3/A- attractive short credit/attractive long equity) reported 3Q earnings.
Revenue rose 10% YoY while operating earnings rose 17% YoY
US Bank is retaining capital and
3Q Deposits rose 2% QoQ and rose 1% YoY.
3Q Asset quality is improving QoQ and YoY.
3Q Client assets rose +4% in the quarter and 11% YoY.
3Q Loan growth was flat QoQ and 2% YoY.
3Q Net interest income rose 4% QoQ and 2% YoY
3Q Non interest income rose 5% QoQ and 7% YoY
Financial Position: Tier 1 capital is 10.9 % vs 10.7 % at June 30 and 10.5% @ September 30, 2024. While USB net was flat QoQ, it remains $6 billion higher YoY. Total marketable debt however fell in both the quarter and YoY. US Bank (USB) did not repurchase equity in the quarter and is raising its dividend 4% per year.
Credit Trading Indicator: The USD US Bank secondary trading USD curve has 31 liquid bonds (floating and fixed rate bank notes and Senior Holdco and Subordinated bonds and Perp) totaling $41 billion with 1 long trade indicator which has a maturity inside of 2 years.
Recent new supply: 5/12/25 USB 5.083 05/15/31 +98 vs 5Y trades -31bp to NIP
Equity Trading Indicator: USB equity is attractive below $46.45 / shr
Charles Schwab (SCHW, A2/A- attractive long credit and equity) reported 3Q quarter earnings
Revenue rose 27% YoY while operating income rose 43% YoY
Schwab is retaining capital YoY
3Q Deposits rose 3% QoQ and fell -3% YoY.
2Q Asset quality rose QoQ and YoY.
3Q Client assets rose 8% QoQ and 17% YoY.
3Q Loan growth rose 6% QoQ and 24% YoY.
3Q Net interest income rose 14% QoQ and rose 37% YoY
3Q Non Interest revenue rose 5% QoQ and 19% YoY
Financial Position: CET 1 capital is 32% as of March 30, 2025
Charles Schwab (SCHW) will not release full 3Q balance sheet data prior to filing its 10-Q in November. As of June 30, SCHW did not use balance sheet to repatriate cash to shareholders. Schwab returned $3.1 billion to shareholders in dividend and share repurchases in 3Q 2025 and reduced Fed borrowings at the same time
Net debt on the SCHW balance sheet as of June 30 had fallen by -$28 billion YoY.
Credit Trading Indicator: The Charles Schwab (SCHW) secondary USD trading curve has 19 liquid bonds (fixed and floating rate bank notes, Sr. Holdco and subordinated bonds and Perp) totaling $22.4 billion with no undervalued or long trade indicators.
Recent new supply: Schwab has not sold bonds since November of 2023.
Equity Trading Indicator: SCHW equity is an attractive long trade below $93.18
KeyCorp (KEY , Baa2/BBB attractive long both credit and equity) reported 3Q quarter earnings
Revenue rose 4% YoY while operating income rose 21% YoY
Key Corp (KEY) is retaining capital YoY
3Q Deposits rose 2% QoQ and 2% YoY.
3Q Asset quality is improving QoQ and YoY.
3Q Loan growth rose 1% QoQ and flat YoY.
3Q Net interest income rose 4% QoQ and 24% YoY
3Q Non – interest income rose 3% QoQ and 100% YoY
Financial Position: Tier 1 capital is 11.8% vs 11.7 % at June 30 and 10.8% @ September 30, 2024
Company did not use balance sheet to repatriate cash to shareholders in 3Q 2025. KEY Returned $220mm of capital through common dividends in 3Q 2025.
Net debt on the KEY balance sheet continues to fall YoY by -$200mm and by -$3.4 billion QoQ
Credit Trading Indicator: The KEY secondary USD trading curve has 14 liquid bonds (fixed and floating rate bank notes, Sr. Holdco and subordinated bonds and Perp) totaling $9.6 billion with no undervalued and no attractive long trades.
Recent new supply: February 25, 2025 KEY 5.121 04/04/31 +98/5Y currently trading -25bp to NIP
Equity Trading Indicator: KEY equity is an attractive long at its current price
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