IBM, Crown Castle, Kinder Morgan, Lloyds, Swedbank, Enskida Bank, Orange, T-Mobil, Dow Chemical, and Union Pacific all Reported Q3 Results and G-255 Trade Indicators October 23, 2025
IBM (IBM, A3/A- attractive short credit and equity) reports 3Q results
IBM 3Q 2025 revenue growth was 9% YoY and operating earnings were $1.7 bill vs an operating loss in 3Q 2024
3Q Operating Metrics
• Software revenue rose 10% YoY
• Consulting revenue rose 3% YoY
Infrastructure revenue rose 17% YoY
• Operating cash flow rose 7% YoY
• Free cash flow rose 15% YoY.
• Management 4Q revenue and operating earnings guidance was slightly lower than 3Q results.
Financial Position:
IBM returned $1.6 bil to shareholders in 3Q 2025 and $6.3 bil over the past 4 quarters. Net debt on the IBM balance sheet has grown $5.4 over the same period to $48.2 billion
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are 35 IBM secondary USD bonds in circulation ($37.1 billion of overall market capital) and 4 bonds carry overvalued systematic credit trading indicators. There are 11 short trade IBM indicators as of last night.
Recent new IBM supply: February 5, 2025 IBM 5.7 02/10/55 +105/30Y now trades -13bp to NIP.
Equity Indicator: IBM equity is a long trade below $269 per share.
Crown Castle (CCI Baa2/BBB attractive long credit and equity) reports 3Q results
3Q 2025 comparable revenue decline of -4% YoY and funds from operations fell - 6% YoY
3Q Operating Metrics
Site Rental revenue fell - 4.2% YoY
Diagnostics revenue fell -6.6% YoY
9 mos Operating Cashflow rose 5% YoY
9 mos Free Cashflow rose 18.5% YoY
Company slightly increased 2025 guidance for both site rental and FFO
Financial Position: CCI lowered its dividend to $540mm/quarter as it has sold its Fiber, Small Cell Businesses to EQT in a transaction that is due to close in the first half of 2026 for $8.5 billion. The US Government shut down may delay the transaction. Net debt on CCI balance sheet remains roughly flat @ $24.2 bill.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are 15 USD secondary CCI USD bonds in circulation totaling $12.45 in market capital. All CCI bonds have avoid systematic trading indicators.
Recent new CCI supply: Crown Castle last sold debt in August 2024.
Equity Indicator: CCI equity is long trade indicator at its current price.
Kinder Morgan (KMI Baa2/BBB attractive long credit and equity) reports 3Q results
3Q 2025 revenue rose 12% while operating earnings rose 4.7%
3Q Operating Metrics
Natural Gas Pipeline volume rose 7% YoY
Products Pipeline volume fell -.6% YoY
Terminal Capacity utilization was flat @ 78.7%
Oil Production fell -3.6%
Operating Cashflow rose 13% YoY
Free Cashflow rose 5% YoY
Company slightly increased 2025 guidance and projected a 2% increase in its annual dividend rate.
Financial Position: KMI dividend has remained flat YoY at roughly $650mm/quarter and KMI has made small purchases of its own equity. Net debt has remained flat QoQ and YoY @ $32.3 billion.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are 22 USD secondary KMI USD bonds in circulation totaling $20.4 in market capital. 2 KMI bonds have overvalued systematic trading indicators. 8 have short trade indicators.
Recent new KMI supply: April 22, 2025 KMI 5.85 06/01/35 +150/10Y trades (-48bp) to NIP.
Equity Indicator: KMI equity is long trade indicator at its current price.
Lloyds Bank (LLOYDS A3/A- attractive long credit/equity) reported 3Q earnings.
Revenue rose 7% YoY while operating earnings fell -30% YoY
Lloyds is retaining capital and
3Q Deposits rose 1% QoQ and 4% YoY.
3Q Asset quality is declining slightly QoQ and flat YoY.
3Q Client assets rose +4% in the quarter and 11% YoY.
3Q Loan growth rose QoQ and 8% YoY.
3Q Net interest income rose 3% QoQ and 7% YoY
3Q Sales and trading rose 3% QoQ and 9% YoY
Lloyds (LLOYDS) cut its full year outlook to ROTE of 12% down from 13.5% owing to motor lending redress sanctions from the FCA. The motor lending issue has been a 2 year ordeal, but it makes 2026 comparisons much easier.
Financial Position: Tier 1 capital is 13.8 % vs 13.8 % at June 30 and 14.2% @ September 30, 2024. Lloyds did announced a £1.7 billion share buyback program for 2024 and has made minimal progress. LLOYDS returned roughly £750mm to shareholders via the year end 2024 dividend and interim 2025 dividend. Net debt on the Lloyds (LLOYDS) balance sheet is growing owing to the company adding to its trading operation, not as a result of capital distribution to shareholders.
Credit Trading Indicator: The LLOYDS secondary trading USD curve has 32 liquid bonds (floating and fixed rate bank notes and Senior Holdco and Subordinated bonds and Perp) totaling $29 billion with 12 overvalued and 10 short trade indicators.
Recent new USD supply: 6/10/25 LLOYDS 4.818 6/13/29 +83/3Y trades -19bp to NIP
Equity Trading Indicator: Lloyds (LLOY LN) equity is attractive long below GBp 80/shr
Swedbank (SWEDA, A3/A attractive short credit/attractive long equity) reported 3Q quarter earnings
Revenue rose 1% YoY while operating income rose 2% YoY
SWEDA is retaining capital YoY
3Q Deposits rose 2% QoQ and 3% YoY.
3Q Asset quality was declining QoQ and YoY.
3Q Client assets rose 2% QoQ and 3% YoY.
3Q Loan growth rose 2% QoQ and 2% YoY.
3Q Net Interest Income fell -1% QoQ and -12% YoY
3Q Non Interest Income rose 6% QoQ and fell -4% YoY
Management raised 4Q guidance for ROE and NIM
Financial Position: Tier 1 capital is 19.7% vs 19.7 % at June 30 and 20.4% @ September 30, 2024
Swedbank (SWEDA) has paid SEK 24.392 bil in dividends so far in 2025 and net balance sheet leverage has declined by SEK 66 bil.
Credit Trading Indicator: The SWEDA secondary USD trading curve has 10 liquid bonds (fixed and floating rate bank notes, Sr. Holdco and subordinated bonds and Perp) totaling $7.25 billion with 1 undervalued trade indicator.
Recent new USD supply: May 14, 2025 SWEDA 5.083 05/21/30 +93/5Y currently trading -23bp to NIP
Equity Trading Indicator: SWEDA equity is an attractive long trade below SEK 277/shr
Skandinaviska Enskilda (SEB , Aa3/A+ attractive short both credit and equity) reported 3Q quarter earnings
Revenue fell -5% YoY while operating income fell -7% YoY
SEB is retaining capital YoY
On September 8, 2025, SEB announced an agreement to acquire FirstBank for implied consideration of $4.1 billion, with an expected close in early 2026
3Q Deposits fell -5% QoQ and -6% YoY.
3Q Asset quality is declining QoQ and YoY.
3Q Client assets rose 3% YoY.
3Q Loans fell -1% QoQ and were flat YoY.
3Q Net interest income rose 1% QoQ and fell -8% YoY
3Q Non – interest income fell -6% QoQ and -7% YoY
Management affirmed 2025 Guidance for overall revenue and earnings.
Financial Position: CET 1 capital is 18.2% vs 17.7 % at June 30 and 19.4% @ September 30, 2024
Company used balance to repatriate cash to shareholders in 3Q 2025. SEB Returned SEK 2.5 billion of capital to shareholders as well SEK 6.2 billion through through dividends. Net debt on the SEB balance sheet continues to rise by almost 20% YoY
Credit Trading Indicator: The SEB secondary USD trading curve has 10 liquid bonds (fixed and floating rate bank notes, Sr. Holdco and subordinated bonds and Perp) totaling $5.8 billion with 1 overvalued and 1 short trade indicator
Recent new USD supply: August 25, 2025 SEB 4 ½ 09/03/30 +73/5Y currently trading +2bp to NIP
Equity Trading Indicator: SEBA SS equity is a short trade indicator at its current price
Orange (ORAFP, Baa2/BBB attractive short credit and equity) 3Q ended September 30
Orange reported operating revenue growth of 1% YoY in their third quarter. Operating income rose
3.5% YoY
3Q Operating Metrics
French revenue fell – 3.7% YoY
Africa & Middle East revenue . rose 12.2% YoY
Europe (ex-France) revenue rose 4.7% YoY
Orange revenue fell -4.3% YoY.
Business Wireline Revenue fell -7.8% YoY.
Overall Customer count is positive
Overall Accesses are positive
Closed DirecTV sale.
Company raised 2025 EBITDA and dividend guidance
Financial Position: Orange reports balance sheet at December 31 and June 30 of each year. The company maintains a goal of debt/Ebitda of 2X and sometimes even meets that goal. As of June 30,2025 ORA FP had €28 bil of net debt on its balance sheet. The company does not use its balance sheet to return capital to shareholders.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are currently 4 secondary USD ORAFP bonds in circulation. The systematic trading model avoids all issuer bonds for corporates reporting balance sheet twice per year with the exception of 60 calendar days post the report as the "headline risk" is far greater than the potential return on an issuer bond.
Recent Orange (ORAFP) USD supply: Company last issued USD debt in 2014.
Equity Trading Model Indicator: ORA FP equity is a long indicator below €13.5/shr.
T-Mobil (TMUS Baa1/BBB attractive short credit and attractive long equity) reports 3Q results
T-Mobil reported 3Q 2025 revenue growth of 9% YoY and operating earnings of 6% YoY.
3Q Operating Metrics
Postpaid adds 2,300k
Postpaid churn .89%
Broadband subscriber growth +560k
Postpaid ARPU rose 2.1% YoY.
Prepaid ARPU fell -5 YoY.
Closed DirecTV sale.
Announced purchase of mid-band spectrum from EchoStar.
3Q Operating cashflow rose 22% YoY to $7.4 billion
3Q Free cashflow was negative post US Cellular wireless closure.
Company raised 2025 guidance for revenue and cashflow.
Financial Position: T-Mobil's return to shareholders via dividend and share repurchase has levelled off @ $3.5 bill/qtr. Given their acquisition strategy, net debt has grown 13% YoY to $79 billion. The stochastic trading model creates its credit spread trading ranges based on both the amount of debt the comes into issue each quarter as well the current valuation.
T-Mobil net debt has grown by 33% over the past 5 years.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are currently 41 liquid secondary USD TMUS bonds totalling $66 billion . in market capital. 10 trading indicators are overvalued and there are 23 short trade indicators.
Recent new T-Mobil supply: TMUS 4.95 11/15/35 issued October 6, 2025 +83/10Y and currently trades +7 bp to NIP
Equity Indicator: TMUS equity is a long trade indicator at its current price.
Dow (DOW, Baa2/BBB attractive short credit, and equity) reports 3Q results
DOW 3Q 2025 revenue declined - 10% YoY and operating earnings fell -78% YoY
3Q Operating Metrics
• Packaging and Specialty Plastics Revenue fell -11% YoY – volumes fell -1%
• Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure Revenue fell -8 YoY
• 9 mos Operating cash flow fell 67% YoY
• 9 Mos Free cash flow was negative vs. $550mm in the first 9 mos of 2024.
• Management did not guide on 4Q revenue and operating earnings.
Financial Position: Dow returned $1.2 bil to shareholders in the first 9 months of 2025 and Dow sold some of its equity interests to help retain cash. While net debt is flat QoQ and YOY total marketable debt has grown 14% YoY to $18 billion.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are 18 DOW secondary USD bonds in circulation ($13.45 billion of overall market capital) and one bonds carries an overvalued systematic credit trading indicator. There are no short trade DOW indicators as of last night.
Recent new DOW supply: September 3, 2025 DOW 5.65 03/15/36 +145/10Y now trades +18bp to NIP.
Equity Indicator: DOW equity is a short above $32.50 per share.
Union Pacific (UNP, A3/A- attractive short credit/long equity) 3Q ended September 30
UNP reported operating revenue of +1% YoY in their third quarter. Operating income rose 6% YoY
3Q Operating Metrics
Total merchandise units shipped rose +3% YoY
Revenue Per Unit rose 1% YoY
Total Revenue / Ton Mile rose 5% YoY
Fuel costs fell -1% YoY.
9 mos operating cashflow rose 7% to $7.1 bil
9 mos free cashflow was flat YoY @ $4.2 bill.
Company only guided that they are pausing share repurchase for the Norfolk Southern (NSC) purchase. already are).
Financial Position: Net debt on the UNP balance sheet is flat QoQ and YoY @$29 billion.
Credit Trading Model Indicator: There are currently 23 secondary USD UNP bonds in circulation totaling $20.3 billion of market capital. 11 have overvalued indicators and none have short trade indicators.
Recent UNP new supply: February 10, 2025 UNP 5.1 02/20/35 +65/10Y trades -5bp to NIP
Equity Trading Indicator: UNP equity is a long trade indicator at its current price.
Disclaimer - This report is not intended as, and does not constitute an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All data, levels, opinions, and representations herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The authors of this report assume no liability for losses or damages arising from the use of this information. Investors should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The information in this report is based on sources believed to be reliable, but no guarantee is made as to its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness