G-255 Earnings Summary with Trading Indicators post 2Q results for 15 issuers
G-255 Earnings Summary Reporting Results July 29, 2025
Exxon Mobil (XOM) Aa2/AA- attractive long)
Chevron (CVX Aa2/AA- attractive short)
BNP Paribas SA (BNP Baa1/A- attractive long)
Deutsche Bank (DB Baa1/BBB attractive long)
Boeing (BA Baa3/BBB- attractive long )
Stellantis (Baa3/BBB- attractive short)
American Airl (AAL BA2/BB- attractive long)
UPS (UPS A2/A, attractive short)
Roche (ROSW Aa2/AA+ attractive long)
Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP Baa1/BBB attractive short)
Frontier Communications Parent Inc (FYBR B2/Battractive short )
Orange (ORAFP Baa1/BBB+ attractive long)
Nestle (NESVNX Aa3/AA- attractive long to attractive short)
American Tower Corp (AMT Baa3/BBB- attractive short)
Intel (INTC Baa2/BBB attractive short )
AstraZeneca PLC
Merck & Co Inc
UnitedHealth Group Inc
Visa
Mondelez
Proctor & Gamble
Starbucks
Royal Caribbean
DTE Energy
Earnings Summaries with Credit Trading Model Indicators
Barclays Banking Group (BACR Baa1/BBB+ attractive long) Earnings summary: reported 13.5% 2Q revenue growth and 28% operating earnings growth YoY.
• 2Q Net interest income grew 12% YoY.
• 2Q Investment Bank income rose 10%.
• 2Q Credit was declining.
• Barclays guidance rose with an ROE of 11.5%
Financial Position:
• BARC Tier 1 capital at 6/30/25 was 14.0% vs. 13.6% at the end of Q1 and 14.6% a year ago.
• Total loans rose roughly 4% YoY to £ 418 bil.
• Deposits fell 2% QoQ and are £7 bil higher YoY @ £564 bil.
• On balance sheet liquidity rose and LLOYDS now has net cash on its balance sheet.
Trading Model Indicator: There are 37 BACR liquid bonds (fixed and floating - bank notes, senior holdco, subordinated bonds, and perpetuals) totaling $53.8 billion. At present no USD Barclays bonds have undervalued systematic credit trading trading indicators.
Equity Indicator: The model views BACR LN equity as an attractive long trade at GBP 315
per share.
UPS (UPS A2/A, attractive short) Earnings Summary: UPS reported 2Q revenue that fell -2.75% YoY and net earnings that dropped -9% YoY.
• 2Q Domestic Package revenue fell -.3% YoY.
• 2Q International Package revenue rose 4.4%
• 2Q Supply Chain Soluations revenue fell -19.6%
• Company 2025 guidance was unchanged – mid single digit revenue growth and $5.5 bil of dividend payout.
Financial Position:
• 1H Operating cashflow fell 49% YoY to $2.666 bil.
• Free cashflow was -$2.9 bil v. $6 bil
• Share repurchase was $ 1bil v none a year ago.
• After capex, share repurchase and dividend payments UPS net debt rose by $2.15 bil QoQ and $2.7 bil YoY to $18.5 bil.
Trading Model Indicator: 13 of the 21 secondary USD UNP bonds have a market capitalization of $900mm or more. All of them carry and overvalued trading indicator and 5 have attractive short trading indicators. The United Parcel Service (UPS) 4 7/8 03/03/33 has the greatest spread widening potential.
Equity Indicator: UPS eauity The trading model sees UNP equity is a short @ $100/share.
Stellantis (STLA Baa3/BBB- attractive short) Earnings Summary: 2Q revenue fell -13% and operating earnings were -€-2.7 bil.
• 1H Unit sales fell by -6% .
• 1H North American shipments fell –26%
• 1H European shipments were -6% YoY.
• 2H guidance was for revenue to increase v. 1H 2025 and for free cashflow to improve v. 1H.
Financial Position:
• 1H Operating cashflow was -€2.4 bil v. €4 bil in 1H 2024.
• 1H Free cashflow was -€3 bil v. - €400mm in 1H 2024.
• 1H Net debt rose by €14 bil YoY. STLA had net cash as of June 30 and December 31 2024.
Trading Model Indicator: There are 7 secondary USD STLA Finance bonds in circulation. 4 bonds have a market capitalization of $750mm or more. All 4 are trading have overvalued and one has an attractive short systematic credit indicator, the STLA 5 3/4 03/18/30
Equity Indicator: STLAM IM equity is a short trade @ € 10.80 per share.
Royal Caribbean (RCL, Baa3/BBB-, attractive Long) Earnings Summary: RCL reported 2Q revenue that rose 29% YoY and earnings that exceeded +40%
•Load factor in the second quarter was 110%.
•Gross Margin Yields rose 11.0% as-reported. Currency.
•Net Yields were rose 5.3%
•Gross Cruise Costs per Available Passenger Cruise Days ("APCD") increased 0.8%
•Net Cruise Costs ("NCC"), excluding Fuel, per APCD increased 2.5%
Company Guidance:
•Net Yields are expected to increase 3.5% to 4.0% as-reported and in Constant Currency.
•NCC, excluding Fuel, per APCD is expected to increase approximately 0.5%.
Financial Position:
• 1H Operating cashflow rose +16% to $3.4 billion.
• 1H free cash flow rose was +$2.2bil vs $400mm.
• 2A net debt fell $744mm and YoY net debt dropped $2.4 bil to $18.3 bil.
Trading Model Indicator: There are 10 secondary USD CCL and 7 have market capitalization of $1 billion or more. None have undervalued trade indicators. The trading model would participate in any new CCL supply.
Equity Indicator: The trading model sees RCL equity as an attractive long trade at $23.25 per share.
Norfolk Southern (NSC, Baa1/BBB+, attractive long) Earnings Summary: Boeing reported 2Q revenue that 8% YoY, and net earnings that were flat.
• Company is in the process of merging with Union Pacific (A2/A- attractive short )
• Overall Norfolk Southern (NSC) net debt is down -$869mm YoY even as the company raised dividend payments.
Trading Model Indicator: There are 24 secondary liquid NSC bonds and all but 4 have $750mm or less in market capitalization. There are no NSC secondary bonds that have undervalued indicators at current levels.
Equity Indicator: UNP equity is a long trade at today's price of $222/share.
Boeing (BA, Baa2/BBB-, attractive long) Earnings Summary: Boeing reported 2Q revenue that 8% YoY, and net earnings that were flat.
• 2Q 737 program increased production to 38 per month
• 2Q Commercial Airplanes booked 455 net orders in the quarter
• 2Q Commercial Airplane operating margin of (-5.1%)
• 2Q Defense, Space & Security operating margin of 1.7%
Financial Position:
• 1H Cashflow from operations improved to -$639mm from -$1.8 bil in 1H 2024.
• 1H free cash flow after acquisitions was -$2 bil. V -$9.2 bil in 1H 2024.
• Overall Honeywell (HON) net debt has grown 250% over the past 3 years to $25.8 billion while operating income has grown 10% over the same period to $1.8 billion for the quarter.
Trading Model Indicator: There are 24 secondary liquid USD Boeing (BA) bonds and all but 2 have $750mm or more in market capitalization. There are no BA secondary bonds that have undervalued indicators at current levels.
Equity Indicator: BA equity is a long trade at $194/share.
Merck (MRK Aa3/A+ attractive long) Earnings Summary:
Merk reported 2Q sales that fell -2% YoY and operating earnings that fell -7% YoY
• 1H Pharma revenue fell -3.1% YoY.
• Company announced a cost savings program that includes employ cuts
• Merck earnings guidance remained at roughly $22.5 billion for 2025.
Financial Position:
• Merck will not release cash – flow or balance sheet data until we see the 10-Q next month.
and that perating cashflow fell -24% to CHF 6.1 bil in first half 2025.
• Merck was de-levering @ 3/31/25.
Trading Model Indicator: There are 19 liquid secondary USD Merck bonds and all but 1 has market capitalization of $750mm or greate. At present three bonds (all with coupons of 2.35% and below have undervalued indicators from our systematic credit trading model.
Equity Indicator: Merck (MRK) equity has no equity indicator owing to the lack of current cashflow data.
United Healthcare (UNH ,A2/A+ attractive short) Earnings Summary:
United Healthcare (UNH) 2Q revenue 12% YoY and operating income fell -20%.
• 2Q Employer/Individual revenue rose 5% YoY.
• 2Q Medicaid/Medicare revenue rose 22% YoY.
• 2Q Community revenue rose 20%YoY.
• 2Q Medical care expense rose 20% YoY Community revenue rose 20%YoY.
• UNH cut earnings guidance by 30% but sees 2025 revenue growth of 15%
Financial Position:
• 1H Operating cashflow rose (after one time items) 42% to $12.64 bil first half 2025.
• Free cashflow was +11 billion in 1H 2025.
• After Capex, share repurchase and dividends total debt rose by $2000mm QoQ and $5.3 billion YoY.
• The past 3 years net debt has grown 150% to $26.7 billion while company operating income is flat.
Trading Model Indicator: 48 of the liquid secondary UNH USD bonds have market capitalization greater than $750mm. 35 have overvalued trade indicator readings from our systematic trading model. 6 UNH bonds have a systematic trading model short trade indicator, the UNH 4 1/2 04/15/33 has the greatest spread widening potential.
Equity Indicator: United Healthcare (UNH) equity is an attractive long at its current $261 per share price.
Astra Zeneca (AZN ,A1/A+ attractive long) Earnings Summary:
Astra Zeneca (AZN) reported 2Q revenue growth of 11.74% and earnings that rose 27%.
• Oncology remains AZN's largest growth are (+16% in 2Q 2025. But no therapy area revenue rose by less than 8% in 2Q 2025.
• US and Emerging markets both showed 12% 2Q revenue growth.
• Guidance was not raised. Company still anticipates high single digit revenue growth and low double digit earnings growth.
Financial Position:
• 1H Operating cash flow rose 21% to $7.8 billion.
•YoY net debt fell $1 bil to $25.2 billion.
Trading Model Indicator: 3 of the 21 AZN liquid USD USD secondary bonds in circulation have less than $750mm in market capitalization. Only the 3 AZN bonds with less than 1Y in maturity have undervalued indicators from the systematic credit trading model.
Equity Indicator: Astra Zeneca (AZN) equity is an attractive long @ $71.21 per share.
Orange (ORAFP Baa1/BBB+ attractive long) Earnings Summary: Orange reported 1H revenue decline of -14% and a -€105mm earnings loss in 1H 2025.
• 1H "adjusted EBITDAal" rose 4.2% the first half of 2025 to €5.6 bil. Company took a €1.167 bil provision for "Employment and Career Path Planning" which let to the reported loss.
• Orange Africa and Middle East revenue rose 12.9% in 1H 2025.
• European (including France) revenue decline was roughly -2% 1H 2025.
• Orange Business revenue fell -5.4% in 1H 2025.
• Guidance was non specific with the exception of maintaining net debt a current levels and continuing their dividend.
Financial Position:
• 1H operating cashflow was flat YoY @ €4.7 bil. was re-levering its balance sheet as of 31 March.
• 1H free cashflow fell -14% to €1.4 bill/
• Orange Net debt continues to fall both QoQ and YoY and is now well below €30 billion.
Trading Model Indicator: There are 3 liquid secondary ORAFP USD bonds in circulation. Both ORAFP bonds with $900mm or more market capitalization trade within 3bp of their 52 week tights.
Equity Indicator: ORA FP equity is an attractive long trade @ €12.50 per share.
American Tower Corp (AMT Baa3/BBB- attractive short) Earnings Summary:
AMT reported 2Q revenue that fell -9.42% YoY and net income that fell – 60% YoY.
• 2Q property revenue grew 3.2% YoY.
• 2Q tenet billing growth grew 5.2% YoY.
• Net income fell owing to foreign currency translation.
• Guidance is for tenet billing growth to continue around 5% and the company is raising it EBITDA outlook.
Financial Position:
• 1H operating cash flow fell -2% to $2.575 bil.
• 1H free cash flow fell – 24% to $1.75 bil.
• Total debt and net debt on the American Tower (AMT) balance sheet rose slightly as the company maintained it dividend rate. However American Tower (AMT) is delivering YoY.
Trading Model Indicator: There are 12 of the liquid AMT secondary BT USD bonds have market capitalization of $750mm or more. None of those bonds have an undervalued or attractive long systematic model trading indicator.
Equity Indicator: American Tower (AMT) equity is an attractive long at $212 per share.
Visa (V, Aa3/AA-, attractive short) Earnings Summary:
Visa reported 3Q revenue rose 14% and operating Income that rose 3%.
• 3Q Payments volum rose 8% YoY
• 3Q Process transactions rose 10%
• Company guidance for 4Q was unchanged @ $20 billion for net income in 2025.
Financial Position:
• 3Q Operating cashflow rose to $16.82 billion from $13.3 billion in the first 3Q of 2024.
• Free cash flow rose to $17.2 bil from $11 bil in 2024.
• Company used $16.7 billon to return to shareholders Capex, share repurchase and dividends total debt rose by $4 bill YoY.
Trading Model Indicator: Visa has 10 $USD secondary bonds in circulation. 8 have market capital of $750mm or more. 7 are have an overvalued systematic trading model indicator. Only the V 4.3 12/14/45 is considered a attractive short trading indicator at current levels.
Equity Indicator: Visa (V) equity @ $351 per share.
Procter & Gamble (PG ,Aa2/AA- attractive short) Earnings Summary:
PG reported 2Q revenue that 1.7% YoY and operating profit rose 16%.
• 2Q pricing across all 5 operating divisions was 1% YoY,
• 2Q unit volume was 2% YoY.
• Updated guidance was for 1-5% sales growth for 2025 as the company also mentioned US tariffs.
Financial Position:
• 1H Operating cashflow fell to $17.81 billion $19.85 billion in the first half of 2024.
• Free cash flow fell to $14 bil from $15.5 bil in 1H 2025.
• After Capex, share repurchase and dividends total debt rose by $2 bill YoY. Net Debt climbed by $1.9 bil to $25 bil.
Trading Model Indicator: Visa has 10 $USD secondary bonds in circulation. 8 have market capital of $750mm or more. 7 are have an overvalued systematic trading model indicator. Only the V 4.3 12/14/45 is considered a attractive short trading indicator at current levels.
Equity Indicator: Visa (V) equity @ $351 per share.
Starbucks Corp (SBUX , Baa1/BBB+ attractive short) Earnings Summary:
Starbucks reported 2Q revenue that rose 4%% YoY and an operating profit decline of -36%.
• 3Q comp store sales fell -2% YoY
• 3Q North American comp store sales fell -4%
• 3Q Pricing was less than 2% worldwideNorth American comp store sales fell -4%
• 3Q Guidance was for higher 4Q sales, but lower operating margin.
Financial Position:
• 3Q Operating cashflow fell to $3.365 billion from $4.56 billion in the 9 mos of 2024.
• 3Q Free cash flow fell 47% to $1.9 billion.
• After Capex, share repurchase and dividends total debt rose by $1.75 bil in the first 9 months of 2025. Net Debt climbed by $629mm to $12.8 billion.
Trading Model Indicator: There are 16 secondary SBUX USD bonds and 10 with market capitalization greater than $900mm. 6 of the 11 outstanding USD secondary bonds have a systematic trading model short trade indicator, with the SBUX 3.55 08/15/29 having the most spread widening potential.
Equity Indicator: SBUX US equity is a short trade at $96 per share.
Starbucks Corp (SBUX , Baa1/BBB+ attractive short) Earnings Summary:
Starbucks reported 2Q revenue that rose 4%% YoY and an operating profit decline of -36%.
• 3Q comp store sales fell -2% YoY
• 3Q North American comp store sales fell -4%
• 3Q Pricing was less than 2% worldwideNorth American comp store sales fell -4%
• 3Q Guidance was for higher 4Q sales, but lower operating margin.
Financial Position:
• 3Q Operating cashflow fell to $3.365 billion from $4.56 billion in the first 9 mos of 2024.
• 3Q Free cash flow fell 47% to $1.9 billion.
• After Capex, share repurchase and dividends total debt rose by $1.75 bil in the first 9 months of 2025. Net Debt climbed by $629mm to $12.8 billion.
Trading Model Indicator: There are 16 secondary SBUX USD bonds and 10 with market capitalization greater than $900mm. 6 of the 11 outstanding USD secondary bonds have a systematic trading model short trade indicator, with the SBUX 3.55 08/15/29 having the most spread widening potential.
Equity Indicator: SBUX US equity is a short trade at $96 per share.
Mondelez Corp (MDLZ , Baa1/BBB attractive short) Earnings Summary:
Mondelez reported 2Q revenue that rose 7.7%% YoY and an operating profit increase of 38%.
• 2Q International sales rose7.7% YoY
• 2Q International volumes were lower with +10.3% overall pricing.
• 2Q North American sales fell -3.8% YoY with no price increases.
• 3Q Guidance was unchanged with 2025 revenue growth of 5% and operating cashflow to continue to decline.
Financial Position:
• 1H Operating cashflow fell to $1.4 billion from $2.15 billion in the first 6 mos of 2024.
• 1H Free cash flow fell 38% to $800mm.
• After Capex, share repurchase and dividends total debt rose by $2 bil YoY in 2025. Net Debt climbed by $1bil to $19.4 billion.
Trading Model Indicator: There are 28 MDLZ US secondary but just 6 have market capitalization of $750mm or greater. All 6 bonds have overvalued systematic credit trading indicators. 3 bonds are attractive short trades. The MDLZ 2 5/8 09/04/50 has the most spread widening potential according to the trading model.
Equity Indicator: MDLZ US equity is a short trade at its current level of $69.71 per share.
Disclaimer - This report is not intended as, and does not constitute an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All data, levels, opinions, and representations herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The authors of this report assume no liability for losses or damages arising from the use of this information. Investors should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The information in this report is based on sources believed to be reliable, but no guarantee is made as to its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness.